Invasion biology in the bigger picture

人类活动造成的物种扩散程度是前所未有的，而且随着全球交通量的增加可能会增加。虽然大多数非本地物种（NIS）不会造成明显的问题，但有些物种会造成巨大的环境和经济损失。了解哪些物种可能造成问题，它们在哪里传播，它们的影响是什么以及如何管理它们至关重要。因此，我的长期目标是利用现有的最佳数据，在区域、国家和国际范围内了解和预测物种入侵过程的所有阶段。我将在过去十年中取得的重大进展的基础上，从更大的角度研究生物入侵。我们正处于一个令人兴奋的节点，在入侵过程的每个阶段都存在许多预测模型，同时，数据库和“大数据”变得越来越可用。我将集中在本提案中的三个主题- 1）预测模型的合成（跨入侵组件），2）广义入侵模型（跨物种），3）国际规模的入侵。 在主题1中，我的实验室将在入侵的所有阶段综合一个完整的风险模型，并开发一个入侵物种风险评估（ISRA）工具包，这将使科学家在过去几十年中开发的预测模型更容易被资源管理者和政策制定者以及学者使用。这种综合是至关重要的，因为入侵风险最终并不完全取决于任何一个阶段，而是必须综合考虑入侵的各个阶段，并考虑影响的严重性。为了构建ISRA，我们将测试关于入侵组件如何相互作用以及它们告诉我们的潜在过程的假设。一旦建成，ISRA将允许更好地利用和更系统地应用各种数据源。在主题2中开发的广义入侵模型将允许同时分析数十至数千个物种，并将确定入侵风险高的物种和地区并确定其优先顺序，指导监测和管理工作。为了在主题3的国际背景下分析国家创新系统，我们将预测到2050年全球航运（国家创新系统的主要载体）的变化，并探讨随之而来的物种再分配。我们还将探讨国际合作和政治边界对国家创新系统传播的影响。这项研究将使各国能够查明政策和能力建设方面的潜在改进，以及有效执行国家创新制度政策的任何障碍（例如，国家之间的协调问题或现实的决策支持工具不足）。

The extent of species dispersal, mediated through human activity, is unprecedented and likely to increase as global traffic increases. Although most non-indigenous species (NIS) do not cause obvious problems, some species cause immense environmental and economic damages. Understanding which species are likely to cause problems, where they spread, what are their impacts and how to manage them is critical. Thus, my long-term objective is to understand and predict all stages of the species invasion process, across suites of species, at regional, national and international scales, using the best data available. I will examine biological invasions in the bigger picture, building on the substantial advances that have occurred over the last decade. We are at an exciting nexus, where numerous predictive models exist for each stage of the invasion process and simultaneously, databases and “big data” have become increasingly available. I will focus on three themes in this proposal - 1) Synthesis of predictive models (across invasion components), 2) Generalized invasion models (across species), 3) Invasions at the international scale. In Theme 1, my lab will synthesize a full risk model across all the stages of invasion, and develop an Invasive Species Risk Assessment (ISRA) tool kit, which will allow the predictive models scientists have developed over the last decades to be more accessible to resource managers and policy makers as well as academics. Such synthesis is critical, as ultimately, invasion risk is not solely dependent on any single stage, but must integrate across the invasion stages and consider the severity of impact. To build ISRA, we will test hypotheses on how invasion components interact and what they tell us about underlying processes. Once built, ISRA will allow diverse sources of data to be better utilized and more systematically applied. The generalized invasion models developed in Theme 2 will allow analyses of dozens to thousands of species simultaneously, and will identify and prioritize species and areas with high risks of invasion, directing monitoring and management efforts. To analyse NIS in the international context in Theme 3, we will forecast changes in global shipping (a primary vector of NIS) to 2050, and explore the consequent redistribution of species. We will also explore the effects of international cooperation and political borders on the spread of NIS. This research will allow countries to identify potential improvements in policy and capacity building, as well as any barriers to effectively implementing NIS policies (e.g., coordination problems between countries or insufficient realistic decision-support tools).