Arctic lakes: Past and Future Changes

加拿大北极正在经历气候的快速变化，平均温度、极端温度和降水量都在快速变化。在接下来的几十年里，温度和降水的变化将继续下去。这种变暖已经导致了北极冻土带上灌木的扩张和森林的变化。然而，这种变化对积雪、冻土、湖泊和径流的影响还知之甚少，我们目前预测未来变化的能力有限。包括积雪、湖泊水位和水流在内的水文变化将对社会的许多方面产生影响。例如，积雪覆盖的变化影响了雪地摩托到达陆地的途径，并影响了湖泊冰盖。湖泊水位和河流流量的变化将影响北方人及其穿越陆地的能力，以及水生生态系统的各个方面，同样具有社会影响。最后，水资源的变化影响到城镇和村庄的供水，并影响到北方水利工程开发的水资源可获得性。例如，湖泊往往是冬季建筑项目的重要供水来源。水利工程依赖于对过去条件的了解来设计工程。鉴于气候的快速变化，过去不再是未来湖泊水位、水流或极端事件重现期的可靠指标。因此，迫切需要了解水文学过去的变化，并需要改进的水文模型来估计未来水资源的变化。这项研究计划将通过开展必要的观测和分析来解决这些问题，以提高我们对北极湖泊水文学的理解；测试和改进北极地区使用的预测模型，并利用这些数据和模型来了解气候、植被和永久冻土变化对加拿大北极水文学的综合影响。我们将向加拿大北部人提供这方面的信息，使他们能够就气候变化和北部资源开发作出明智的决定。

The Canadian Arctic is undergoing rapid changes in climate, in average temperature, temperature extremes, and precipitation. Changes in temperature and precipitation will continue over the coming decades. This warming is already resulting in the expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra and changes in forest. However, the impact of this change on the snow cover, permafrost, lakes and streamflow are poorly understood, and we currently have limited ability to predict future changes. Changes in the hydrology, including snow cover, lake levels and streamflow, will impact many aspects of society. For example, changes in snow cover impact access to the land by snowmobile and affect lake ice cover. Changes in lake levels and streamflow will impact northerners and their ability to travel across the land, and all aspects of the aquatic ecosystem, again with societal implications. And finally, changes in water resources have impacts on water supply to towns and villages, and impacts water availability for the development of northern resources projects. Lakes for example are often important water supplies for winter construction projects. Water resource projects depend on knowledge of past conditions to design the project. Given a rapidly changing climate, the past is no longer a reliable indicator of future lake levels, streamflow or the return period of extreme events. As a result, there is an urgent need to understand past changes in hydrology and for improved hydrologic models to estimate future changes in water resources. This research program will address these issues by carrying out observations and analysis required to improve our understanding of the hydrology of arctic lakes; test and improve predictive models for use in the arctic, and to use these data and models to understand the integrated impact of changing climate, vegetation and permafrost on the hydrology of the Canadian Arctic. We will provide this information to northern Canadians in order to allow them to make informed decisions concerning both changing climate and northern resource development.