Arctic lakes: Past and Future Changes

北极湖泊：过去和未来的变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-06251
• 负责人: Marsh, Philip
• 金额: $ 2.11万
• 依托单位: Wilfrid Laurier University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683006
• 关键词: Arctic; lakes; Past; Future; Changes

The Canadian Arctic is undergoing rapid changes in climate, in average temperature, temperature extremes, and precipitation. Changes in temperature and precipitation will continue over the coming decades. This warming is already resulting in the expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra and changes in forest. However, the impact of this change on the snow cover, permafrost, lakes and streamflow are poorly understood, and we currently have limited ability to predict future changes. Changes in the hydrology, including snow cover, lake levels and streamflow, will impact many aspects of society. For example, changes in snow cover impact access to the land by snowmobile and affect lake ice cover. Changes in lake levels and streamflow will impact northerners and their ability to travel across the land, and all aspects of the aquatic ecosystem, again with societal implications. And finally, changes in water resources have impacts on water supply to towns and villages, and impacts water availability for the development of northern resources projects. Lakes for example are often important water supplies for winter construction projects. Water resource projects depend on knowledge of past conditions to design the project. Given a rapidly changing climate, the past is no longer a reliable indicator of future lake levels, streamflow or the return period of extreme events. As a result, there is an urgent need to understand past changes in hydrology and for improved hydrologic models to estimate future changes in water resources. This research program will address these issues by carrying out observations and analysis required to improve our understanding of the hydrology of arctic lakes; test and improve predictive models for use in the arctic, and to use these data and models to understand the integrated impact of changing climate, vegetation and permafrost on the hydrology of the Canadian Arctic. We will provide this information to northern Canadians in order to allow them to make informed decisions concerning both changing climate and northern resource development.

加拿大北极地区正在经历气候、平均气温、极端气温和降水的快速变化。未来几十年，气温和降水量的变化将继续下去。这种变暖已经导致灌木在北极苔原上的扩张和森林的变化。然而，这种变化对积雪，永久冻土，湖泊和径流的影响知之甚少，我们目前预测未来变化的能力有限。水文学的变化，包括积雪、湖泊水位和流量，将影响社会的许多方面。例如，积雪的变化会影响雪地摩托车进入陆地的机会，并影响湖冰的覆盖。湖泊水位和河流流量的变化将影响北方人及其穿越陆地的能力，以及水生生态系统的各个方面，再次产生社会影响。水资源的变化影响着城镇和农村的供水，影响着北方资源工程的可供水量。例如，湖泊往往是冬季建筑项目的重要供水。水资源项目依赖于对过去条件的了解来设计项目。鉴于气候迅速变化，过去不再是未来湖泊水位、流量或极端事件重现期的可靠指标。因此，迫切需要了解过去的水文变化，并改进水文模型，以估计水资源的未来变化。该研究计划将通过开展观测和分析来解决这些问题，以提高我们对北极湖泊水文的理解;测试和改进用于北极的预测模型，并使用这些数据和模型来了解气候变化，植被和永久冻土对加拿大北极水文的综合影响。我们将向北方加拿大人提供这一信息，以便他们能够就气候变化和北方资源开发做出明智的决定。