Arctic lakes: Past and Future Changes

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The Canadian Arctic is undergoing rapid changes in climate, in average temperature, temperature extremes, and precipitation. Changes in temperature and precipitation will continue over the coming decades. This warming is already resulting in the expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra and changes in forest. However, the impact of this change on the snow cover, permafrost, lakes and streamflow are poorly understood, and we currently have limited ability to predict future changes. Changes in the hydrology, including snow cover, lake levels and streamflow, will impact many aspects of society. For example, changes in snow cover impact access to the land by snowmobile and affect lake ice cover. Changes in lake levels and streamflow will impact northerners and their ability to travel across the land, and all aspects of the aquatic ecosystem, again with societal implications. And finally, changes in water resources have impacts on water supply to towns and villages, and impacts water availability for the development of northern resources projects. Lakes for example are often important water supplies for winter construction projects. Water resource projects depend on knowledge of past conditions to design the project. Given a rapidly changing climate, the past is no longer a reliable indicator of future lake levels, streamflow or the return period of extreme events. As a result, there is an urgent need to understand past changes in hydrology and for improved hydrologic models to estimate future changes in water resources. This research program will address these issues by carrying out observations and analysis required to improve our understanding of the hydrology of arctic lakes; test and improve predictive models for use in the arctic, and to use these data and models to understand the integrated impact of changing climate, vegetation and permafrost on the hydrology of the Canadian Arctic. We will provide this information to northern Canadians in order to allow them to make informed decisions concerning both changing climate and northern resource development.