Weather extremes and insect population dynamics

在这项提案中，我研究了极端天气和气候变化对加拿大落基山脉高山阿波罗蝴蝶Parnassius smintheus长期动态的影响。这一建议建立在对这种蝴蝶的长期研究(自1995年以来)的基础上，研究了树线上升对这些小种群的损失和更多隔离的影响，以及总体气候变异性的影响。我们知道，种群的扩散能力有限，它们的种群动态受越冬天气的影响最大。在冬季极端温暖或极端寒冷的年份，特别是在雪很少的年份，人口数量会下降。由于高山蝴蝶生活在狭小的与世隔绝的栖息地，扩散有限，而且容易受到极端天气事件的影响，它们是在快速变化的世界中识别动物种群风险的极佳模式系统。*两名硕士学生、一名博士生和我将确定冬季气温和降雪影响越冬卵阶段存活的机制，以及它们的存活在多大程度上解释了年度种群增长或下降的变化。我们将在夏末通过试验性的“种植”卵子，并在冬季每隔一段时间恢复卵子，以确定寒冷和炎热的冬季影响它们存活的机制。我们将使用高分辨率卫星图像和地面延时摄影来量化整个草地上的积雪覆盖情况，特别是在我们的鸡蛋种植试验田。结果将被外推到该物种的地理范围，以努力确定冬季天气在确定其分布边界方面的作用，以及导致其地理范围变化的可能性。*结果将确定这些种群是否面临气候变化的风险，或者P.smintheus蝴蝶通过形态、行为或生理具有足够的适应性，以缓解未来预期的更温暖、更多变和少雪的冬季。

In this proposal, I examine the way in which extreme weather and changing climate affect long-term dynamics of the alpine Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. This proposal builds on long-term study of this butterfly (since 1995) examining the effects of rising treeline on loss and increased isolation of these small populations, and of general climate variability. We know that populations have limited dispersal ability, and that their population dynamics are affected most by over-winter weather. Populations decline in years with either extreme warm or extreme cold winters, particularly in years when there is little snow. Because alpine butterflies live in small isolated habitats, have limited dispersal, and are subject to extreme weather events, they serve as an excellent model system for identifying the risks to animal populations in a rapidly changing world. ******Two MSc students, one PhD student, and I, will identify the mechanisms by which winter temperatures and snowfall affect survival of the over-wintering egg stage, and the degree to which their survival explains variation in annual population growth or decline. We will use experimental ‘planting' of eggs in late summer, and their recovery at intervals through the winter to determine mechanisms by which cold and hot winters affect their survival. We will use high-resolution satellite imagery and ground-based time-lapse photography to quantify snow cover across the meadows generally, and in our egg ‘planting' experimental plots specifically. Results will be extrapolated to the geographic range of this species in an effort to determine the role of winter weather in defining the boundary of their distribution, and the potential for causing shifts in their geographic range.******Results will determine whether these populations are at risk to changing climates or that P. smintheus butterflies are sufficiently adaptable via morphology, behaviour or physiology, to mitigate the anticipated warmer, more variable, and less snowy winters in future.