Managing future risk and interdependency in urban systems

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Dangerous climate change and environmental degradation have emerged as global challenges requiring a transition to more sustainable cities. Our urban systems are composed of infrastructure networks, and human activity responsible for over half of global carbon emissions thus playing a vital role for sustainability.***Urban systems and related infrastructure networks are vital for modern economic activity but are also major sources of energy and resource consumption, carbon emissions, and environmental pollution. Historically, planning and investment for urban infrastructure provision has been done sector-by-sector, but infrastructure is becoming more interdependent due to increasing use of information technology, rising cross-sector demands and climate policy. The combined effects of ageing infrastructure, growing demand from social and economic pressures, and physical interdependency can increase risk, vulnerability and failure. ***Future urban population growth will also require a massive build-up of infrastructure across all sectors compounding environmental impacts. Due to high capital costs and externalities, emissions from infrastructure are especially prone to lock-in. Globally, the continued expansion of fossil fuel-based urban infrastructure could produce cumulative emissions during the remainder of the 21st century leading to dangerous atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. ***Despite these challenges, little is known about how strategic investments to mitigate climate change and meet increasing demand, will influence the long-term technical, economic and environmental performance of infrastructure systems. This research program will develop new systems theory, methods and next generation computational decision-support tools to inform planning, engineering and management of future cities. ***This program will contribute to advanced HQP technical training and help position Canada as a research leader in the field of urban systems science and engineering. The findings will be of direct benefit to urban planners, engineers, and industry in managing their risk portfolios. Importantly, this program will provide the scientific evidence to inform more sustainable long-term infrastructure investment decisions, with potentially significant economic benefits for the Canadian government, enhanced livelihoods and well-being for citizens, and competitiveness of industry and the Canadian knowledge economy.**