Managing future risk and interdependency in urban systems

管理城市系统的未来风险和相互依赖性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04609
• 负责人: Tran, Martino
• 金额: $ 3.5万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=749602
• 关键词: Managing; future; risk; interdependency; urban

Dangerous climate change and environmental degradation have emerged as global challenges requiring a transition to more sustainable cities. Our urban systems are composed of infrastructure networks, and human activity responsible for over half of global carbon emissions thus playing a vital role for sustainability.Urban systems and related infrastructure networks are vital for modern economic activity but are also major sources of energy and resource consumption, carbon emissions, and environmental pollution. Historically, planning and investment for urban infrastructure provision has been done sector-by-sector, but infrastructure is becoming more interdependent due to increasing use of information technology, rising cross-sector demands and climate policy. The combined effects of ageing infrastructure, growing demand from social and economic pressures, and physical interdependency can increase risk, vulnerability and failure. Future urban population growth will also require a massive build-up of infrastructure across all sectors compounding environmental impacts. Due to high capital costs and externalities, emissions from infrastructure are especially prone to lock-in. Globally, the continued expansion of fossil fuel-based urban infrastructure could produce cumulative emissions during the remainder of the 21st century leading to dangerous atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Despite these challenges, little is known about how strategic investments to mitigate climate change and meet increasing demand, will influence the long-term technical, economic and environmental performance of infrastructure systems. This research program will develop new systems theory, methods and next generation computational decision-support tools to inform planning, engineering and management of future cities. This program will contribute to advanced HQP technical training and help position Canada as a research leader in the field of urban systems science and engineering. The findings will be of direct benefit to urban planners, engineers, and industry in managing their risk portfolios. Importantly, this program will provide the scientific evidence to inform more sustainable long-term infrastructure investment decisions, with potentially significant economic benefits for the Canadian government, enhanced livelihoods and well-being for citizens, and competitiveness of industry and the Canadian knowledge economy.

危险的气候变化和环境退化已成为全球性挑战，需要向更可持续的城市过渡。我们的城市系统由基础设施网络和人类活动组成，占全球碳排放量的一半以上，因此在可持续发展方面发挥着至关重要的作用。城市系统和相关基础设施网络对现代经济活动至关重要，但也是能源和资源消耗、碳排放和环境污染的主要来源。从历史上看，城市基础设施的规划和投资一直是按部门进行的，但由于信息技术的使用越来越多，跨部门需求和气候政策的增加，基础设施正变得越来越相互依赖。基础设施老化、社会和经济压力导致的需求不断增长以及物质上的相互依赖，这些因素的综合影响会增加风险、脆弱性和失败。未来的城市人口增长还将需要在所有部门大规模建设基础设施，从而加剧环境影响。由于高资本成本和外部性，基础设施的排放特别容易被锁定。在全球范围内，基于化石燃料的城市基础设施的持续扩张可能会在21世纪剩余时间内产生累积排放，导致大气中二氧化碳浓度达到危险的水平。世纪剩余时间。尽管存在这些挑战，但人们对缓解气候变化和满足日益增长的需求的战略投资将如何影响基础设施系统的长期技术、经济和环境绩效知之甚少。该研究计划将开发新的系统理论，方法和下一代计算决策支持工具，为未来城市的规划，工程和管理提供信息。该计划将有助于先进的HQP技术培训，并帮助加拿大成为城市系统科学和工程领域的研究领导者。研究结果将直接有利于城市规划者，工程师和行业管理他们的风险组合。重要的是，该计划将提供科学证据，为更可持续的长期基础设施投资决策提供信息，为加拿大政府带来潜在的重大经济利益，提高公民的生计和福祉，以及工业和加拿大知识经济的竞争力。