Improved characterization of permafrost vulnerability to support decision makers, infrastructure, and community stewardship in the Northwest Territories******

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Permafrost is showing widespread signs of degradation that is expected to continue with climate warming. Permafrost distributions are critical to roads, buildings, pipelines, and waste containment in Canada's north, and thermokarst (terrain subsidence following thaw of ice-rich permafrost) threatens infrastructure, land stability, and community safety. We will develop improved models to predict ground ice content, using machine learning focused on spatial patterns as well as time-dependent simulation of vertical ground-ice profiles. We will use ground ice information from these two approaches to assess permafrost vulnerability to thermokarst at regional scales; regional maps will be corroborated with fine scale data collected as part of the proposed field program. This approach will allow us to refine and validate a regional predictive tool that can be used for planning additional infrastructure in the region or projecting maintenance schedules. These research activities will be focused in several regions of strategic importance for economic diversification in northwestern Canada: the 1) the Sahtú (oil and gas development), 2) the North Slave Lake (transportation, biofuels), 3) South Slave Lake (forestry, agriculture) regions. We will work with local communities in each focal region to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and to ensure that our tools are used to provide the most important information about the future of culturally important areas. Together, this research will aid the Geological Survey of Canada and the Northwest Territories Geological Survey by developing new decision-aids for predicting and detecting areas with a high potential for thermokarst. By enhancing knowledge of permafrost sensitivity in our three focal regions, we will provide government agencies and corporations critically needed baseline information required to support responsible decision-making for transportation, oil and gas development, and future industries including increased agricultural and forestry productivity. Our results will be brought to wider public attention via public talks, press releases, and through plain language newsletters distributed to communities.**********