Improved characterization of permafrost vulnerability to support decision makers, infrastructure, and community stewardship in the Northwest Territories

永久冻土正显示出广泛的退化迹象，预计这种退化将随着气候变暖而继续下去。永久冻土的分布对加拿大北部的道路、建筑、管道和废物控制至关重要，而热岩溶(富含冰的永久冻土融化后的地形下沉)威胁着基础设施、土地稳定和社区安全。我们将开发改进的模型来预测地面冰的含量，使用专注于空间模式的机器学习以及垂直地面冰剖面的时间相关模拟。我们将使用这两种方法的地面冰信息在区域范围内评估永久冻土对热岩溶的脆弱性；区域地图将与作为拟议实地计划的一部分收集的精细尺度数据相印证。这一方法将使我们能够改进和验证区域预测工具，该工具可用于规划该区域的其他基础设施或预测维护时间表。这些研究活动将集中在对加拿大西北部经济多样化具有重要战略意义的几个地区：1)Sahtú(石油和天然气开发)，2)北奴湖(运输，生物燃料)，3)南奴湖(林业，农业)地区。我们将与每个重点地区的当地社区合作，纳入传统知识，并确保我们的工具被用来提供关于具有重要文化意义的地区未来的最重要信息。总之，这项研究将为加拿大地质调查局和西北地区地质调查局开发新的决策辅助工具，以预测和探测具有高热岩溶潜力的地区。通过加强对我们三个重点地区永久冻土敏感性的了解，我们将为政府机构和公司提供急需的基线信息，以支持交通、石油和天然气开发以及未来产业(包括提高农业和林业生产率)的负责任决策。我们将通过公开演讲、新闻稿和向社区分发通俗易懂的时事通讯，使我们的成果引起更广泛的公众关注。

Permafrost is showing widespread signs of degradation that is expected to continue with climate warming. Permafrost distributions are critical to roads, buildings, pipelines, and waste containment in Canada's north, and thermokarst (terrain subsidence following thaw of ice-rich permafrost) threatens infrastructure, land stability, and community safety. We will develop improved models to predict ground ice content, using machine learning focused on spatial patterns as well as time-dependent simulation of vertical ground-ice profiles. We will use ground ice information from these two approaches to assess permafrost vulnerability to thermokarst at regional scales; regional maps will be corroborated with fine scale data collected as part of the proposed field program. This approach will allow us to refine and validate a regional predictive tool that can be used for planning additional infrastructure in the region or projecting maintenance schedules. These research activities will be focused in several regions of strategic importance for economic diversification in northwestern Canada: the 1) the Sahtú (oil and gas development), 2) the North Slave Lake (transportation, biofuels), 3) South Slave Lake (forestry, agriculture) regions. We will work with local communities in each focal region to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and to ensure that our tools are used to provide the most important information about the future of culturally important areas. Together, this research will aid the Geological Survey of Canada and the Northwest Territories Geological Survey by developing new decision-aids for predicting and detecting areas with a high potential for thermokarst. By enhancing knowledge of permafrost sensitivity in our three focal regions, we will provide government agencies and corporations critically needed baseline information required to support responsible decision-making for transportation, oil and gas development, and future industries including increased agricultural and forestry productivity. Our results will be brought to wider public attention via public talks, press releases, and through plain language newsletters distributed to communities.