Improved characterization of permafrost vulnerability to support decision makers, infrastructure, and community stewardship in the Northwest Territories

永久冻土正在显示出广泛的退化迹象，预计这种退化将随着气候变暖而继续。永久冻土的分布对加拿大北部的道路、建筑、管道和废物控制至关重要，而热岩溶（富冰永久冻土融化后的地形沉降）威胁着基础设施、土地稳定和社区安全。我们将开发改进的模型来预测地面冰含量，使用专注于空间模式的机器学习以及垂直地面冰剖面的时间依赖性模拟。我们将利用这两种方法获得的地面冰信息，在区域尺度上评估永久冻土对热岩溶的脆弱性；区域地图将用作为拟议的实地方案的一部分收集的精细比例尺数据加以证实。这种方法将允许我们改进并验证一个区域预测工具，该工具可以用于规划该区域的附加基础设施或规划维护计划。这些研究活动将集中在对加拿大西北部经济多样化具有战略重要性的几个地区：1)Sahtú（石油和天然气开发），2)北奴隶湖（运输，生物燃料），3)南奴隶湖（林业，农业）地区。我们将与每个重点地区的当地社区合作，纳入传统知识，并确保我们的工具被用于提供有关文化重要地区未来的最重要信息。这项研究将通过开发新的决策辅助工具来预测和探测热岩溶高潜力地区，从而帮助加拿大地质调查局和西北地区地质调查局。通过加强对三个重点地区永久冻土敏感性的了解，我们将为政府机构和公司提供急需的基线信息，以支持交通、石油和天然气开发以及未来行业（包括提高农业和林业生产力）的负责任决策。我们的成果将通过公开演讲、新闻稿和向社区分发的简讯等方式引起更广泛的公众关注。

Permafrost is showing widespread signs of degradation that is expected to continue with climate warming. Permafrost distributions are critical to roads, buildings, pipelines, and waste containment in Canada's north, and thermokarst (terrain subsidence following thaw of ice-rich permafrost) threatens infrastructure, land stability, and community safety. We will develop improved models to predict ground ice content, using machine learning focused on spatial patterns as well as time-dependent simulation of vertical ground-ice profiles. We will use ground ice information from these two approaches to assess permafrost vulnerability to thermokarst at regional scales; regional maps will be corroborated with fine scale data collected as part of the proposed field program. This approach will allow us to refine and validate a regional predictive tool that can be used for planning additional infrastructure in the region or projecting maintenance schedules. These research activities will be focused in several regions of strategic importance for economic diversification in northwestern Canada: the 1) the Sahtú (oil and gas development), 2) the North Slave Lake (transportation, biofuels), 3) South Slave Lake (forestry, agriculture) regions. We will work with local communities in each focal region to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and to ensure that our tools are used to provide the most important information about the future of culturally important areas. Together, this research will aid the Geological Survey of Canada and the Northwest Territories Geological Survey by developing new decision-aids for predicting and detecting areas with a high potential for thermokarst. By enhancing knowledge of permafrost sensitivity in our three focal regions, we will provide government agencies and corporations critically needed baseline information required to support responsible decision-making for transportation, oil and gas development, and future industries including increased agricultural and forestry productivity. Our results will be brought to wider public attention via public talks, press releases, and through plain language newsletters distributed to communities.