Modelling the spread of infections in a first-world child care facility: coding, analysis and policy implications

对第一世界儿童保育机构中的感染传播进行建模：编码、分析和政策影响

• 批准号: 538719-2019
• 负责人: Cojocaru, Monica
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683536
• 关键词: Modelling; spread; infections; first; world

Sanofi Pasteur in Canada, the vaccines division of Sanofi, is one of the world's leading healthcare companies,and the country's largest vaccine company with a strong commitment to public health. They provide importantvaccines to Canadians for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, common illnesses and cancers.Canada Sanofi Pasteur is interested in a mathematical model of a day care center in a 1st world country (suchas Canada), in order to use it as scenario testing for infection prevention behaviour and prophylactic treatments.They are specifically interested in a model where individuals in the population are kids, staff and parents, andwhere their interactions are modeled explicitly: person-to-person and person-to-environment, during typicaloutbreak episodes roughly of 4-5 months duration. They want to further use the model's output forsocio-economic impact analyses arising from lowering infectiousness in day care centers.In response to the company's interest, we propose the development of a small-population agent-based model ofa day care facility for the purpose of testing and informing prevention policies against viral infections (enteric,influenza, etc.) that can be implemented in a child care setting. The research is not only useful in applications today care environments; it represents a novel approach in basic mathematical modelling of infectiontransmission in small, semi-closed populations. This type of mathematical model differs greatly from similarcompartmental, game theoretic or agent-based epidemiological models, since it refers to a very small population, with different thanaverage contact patterns, and with the possibility of being evolved on a time scale resolution of minutes, versushours or days at a time.

加拿大赛诺菲巴斯德是赛诺菲的疫苗部门，是世界领先的医疗保健公司之一，也是该国最大的疫苗公司，致力于公共卫生。它们为加拿大人提供预防和治疗传染病、常见病和癌症的重要疫苗。赛诺菲巴斯德对第一世界国家（如加拿大）日托中心的数学模型感兴趣，以便将其用作感染预防行为和预防性治疗的情景测试。他们特别感兴趣的是一个模型，其中人口中的个体是儿童，工作人员和家长，并且他们的相互作用明确建模：在大约4-5个月的典型爆发期间，人与人和人与人对环境的相互作用。他们希望进一步利用该模型的输出来分析降低日托中心传染性所产生的社会经济影响。为了响应公司的兴趣，我们建议开发一个基于小群体代理的日托设施模型，目的是测试和告知可在儿童保育环境中实施的针对病毒感染（肠道、流感等）的预防政策。这项研究不仅在今天的护理环境应用中有用；它代表了在小型、半封闭人群中感染传播的基本数学模型中的一种新方法。这种类型的数学模型与类似的分区、博弈论或基于主体的流行病学模型有很大不同，因为它指的是一个非常小的人口，具有不同于平均水平的接触模式，并且有可能在时间尺度上进化，一次以分钟、小时或天为单位。