Urban heat island causation and adaptation: Model development and application to Canadian cities

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The world's cities are projected to warm from climate change and urban development, impacting health and sustainability outcomes. The long-term objectives of my research program include identification of local design-related causes of urban heat and consequent amelioration of urban adaptation to existing and future climates.******Urban development radically alters the landscape, generating urban heat islands (UHIs). Yet, in the words of leading urban climatologists, our current understanding of UHI causation still includes “more speculation than established fact.” The literature is replete with studies of UHI intensity; however, few studies satisfactorily address UHI causal mechanisms, principally because relevant models have not adequately represented key physical processes.******I am one of few researchers worldwide developing advanced urban micrometeorological models. Colleagues and I developed a widely-used model of street-scale temperatures, a sophisticated model of turbulent heat exchange in city streets, and the first detailed model representation of street trees (often used as a heat adaptation strategy). Appropriately combined, these advances will generate numerical models capable of accurately resolving all UHI causation and adaptation mechanisms.******The objectives of this proposal include: 1) development and evaluation of a comprehensive, well-evaluated street-scale urban climate model; 2) complete assessment of UHI causation mechanisms for diverse seasons and climates; 3) novel appraisal of several unexamined processes that affect street-level air temperature; 4) coupled model assessment of impacts of tree planting on street-level temperature and building energy consumption in two cities and seasons; 5) evaluation of optimal heat adaptation strategies for present and future climates in Toronto with consideration of their cold season impacts.******Innovative numerical model development and application will be undertaken at several scales, in collaboration with colleagues internationally. Our work will capture potentially important meteorological processes not resolved by any other urban modeling platform. Our tree model will be inserted into the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and implementation of street trees and other urban heat adaptation strategies in Toronto will be assessed for contemporary and future climates via dynamical downscaling of global climate model projections. Seven graduate students and five undergraduate students will be trained in a stimulating environment. Findings will inform optimal adaptation of Canadian cities to a warming climate.