Climate Change in the Eastern Arctic

这项研究的总体目标是为北极东部地区提供气候变化影响评估，重点是哈德逊湾、福克斯盆地和哈德逊海峡。这项工作结合了北极东部气候条件的基础科学、这些条件的建模以及在进行气候变化影响评估时的使用。海冰主导着北极东部的气候。这一地区已经经历了有据可查的气候变化，并将在未来几十年经历更戏剧性的变化。根据这一总体目标提出的拟议研究项目将发展：1)气候数据分析，它将能够使用特别适用于气候重建的微妙气候度量来检测气候的变异性和变化；2)使用集群分析评估海冰及其下层冰动态的空间分布的技术；3)从耦合气候模型中挑选出海冰状况的一系列预测，并利用当地收集的气候数据进行区域建模和统计缩小尺度；4)评估预测的气候变化对当地原住民和因纽特社区、区域生物群、在第一个项目中，将在过去NSERC资助的工作的基础上，使用几种利用温度细微变化的新技术来重建卫星侦察时代(1970年前)之前的海冰状况。这将实现更长的时间序列，并有能力梳理出气候系统周期性行为的结果以及最近人类活动导致的气候变化造成的变化。在第二个项目中，通过对格网海冰数据进行聚类分析，研究了北极东部主要盆地内的海冰动态，这是一种新的方法，可以了解海冰作为年度循环的一部分是如何发展、传播和破裂的。这也将有助于了解海冰厚度的区域变化。第三个项目更新了2005年发表的气候实验室所做的开创性工作，该实验室根据一套耦合气候模型提供了海冰变化的预测。将更新早期工作的各个方面，然后利用区域气候模型的结果和使用统计缩小尺度产生的预测加以扩充。这将为气候变化影响评估提供适合的预测，这是第四个研究项目的重点。越来越多的地方社区正在经历气候变化对粮食安全、交通安全、住房基础设施和传统生计的影响。将使用为适应战略提供必要工具的气候变化影响评估框架来评估这些影响和其他影响。

The overarching goal of this research is to provide a climate change impact assessment for the Eastern Arctic region focussing on Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Strait. The work combines the basic science of climate conditions in the Eastern Arctic, the modelling of these conditions and the use of these in performing climate change impact assessments. Sea ice dominates the climate of the Eastern Arctic. This region has already experienced well documented climate change and will experience even more dramatic change over the next few decades. The proposed research projects stemming from this overarching goal will develop: 1) climate data analytics that will enable the detection of climate variability and change using nuanced climate metrics, especially suitable for climate reconstruction, 2) techniques to assess spatial distribution of sea ice and its underlying ice dynamics using cluster analysis, 3) a range of projections of sea ice conditions culled from coupled climate models and augmented by regional modelling and statistical downscaling using locally collected climate data, and 4) assessments of impacts of the projected climate change on local First Nations and Inuit communities, regional biota, and physical geography such as permafrost degradation.******In the first project several novel techniques using nuanced changes in temperature which build on past NSERC funded work will be used to reconstruct sea ice conditions prior to the satellite reconnaissance era (pre-1970). This will enable a longer time series and the ability to tease out changes that are the result of cyclical behaviour in the climate system and those resulting from recent anthropogenically induced climate change. In the second project, sea ice dynamics within the major Eastern Arctic basins are examined by using cluster analysis on gridded sea ice data, a novel approach to understanding how sea ice develops, propagates and breaks up as part of the annual cycle. This will also help in understanding the regional variation of sea ice thickness. The third project updates pioneering work done in the Climate Lab that was published in 2005 that provided projections of sea ice change from a suite of coupled climate models. Aspects of the earlier work will be updated and then augmented using the results of regional climate models and projections generated using statistical downscaling. This will provide projections suitable for climate change impact assessments which is the focus of the fourth research project. Increasingly local communities are experiencing the effects of a changing climate impacting on food security, transportation safety, housing infrastructure and traditional livelihoods. These, and other impacts, will be assessed using a climate change impact assessment framework providing the necessary tools for adaptation strategies.