Community reassembly in changing seascapes: patterns, processes, and consequences

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Rationale and objectives: Species ranges and abundances are changing at unpredicted rates due to stresses like climate change, biological invasion, and habitat destruction. What will future ecosystems look like and how will they function in the face of these major disturbances? My proposed research stands to significantly advance our ability to predict species composition and ecosystem function under future conditions by uncovering: 1) how differences in species' response to stress mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity, 2) factors driving differences in exposure and response to stress between and within species, and 3) the potential effect of new biotic interactions caused by stress on future ecosystem state and function. ******Approach: My research program focuses on fishes and their interactions within tropical Atlantic coral reef and temperate Pacific kelp forests ecosystems which are affected by multiple anthropogenic stresses including habitat loss, over-exploitation, biological invasion, and intensifying climate change. Through a combination of field study, laboratory experiments, and quantitative modeling, I will answer three key questions:******1. How does stress affect patterns of community diversity and biomass? I will conduct a large-scale field experiment of fish metacommunities in coastal coral reef and mangrove habitats in South Florida exposed to two man-made stressors (habitat destruction and fishing). This work will shed light on features of marine systems and their inhabitants that mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity over space and time. ******2. What mechanisms govern variation in stress exposure and response between species? I will investigate how exposure and response to thermal stress and predation risk varies among fishes of different maximum body size and habitat use, and how exposure history affects size-based predator-prey interactions through laboratory studies and modeling that complement our large-scale field study in South Florida.******3. How will novel interactions affect future ecosystem structure and function? I will examine the effects of behaviour and morphology, independent from species identity, on the strength of interactions between novel pairs of predators and prey that are likely to encounter one another due to climate change in temperate Pacific ecosystems. Focusing on general characteristics that affect the outcome of successive steps during predation events allows me to make predictions about the strength of species interactions that don't co-occur now, but are likely to in future. ******Impact: This research will produce novel, general methods for predicting the effects of continued human-mediated stress on marine ecosystems, and the likely results of interventions designed to halt or reverse them.