Community reassembly in changing seascapes: patterns, processes, and consequences

理由和目标：由于气候变化、生物入侵和栖息地破坏等压力，物种范围和丰度正在以不可预测的速度变化。未来的生态系统会是什么样子？面对这些重大干扰，它们将如何运作？我提出的研究将大大提高我们预测未来条件下物种组成和生态系统功能的能力，揭示：1）物种对压力的反应差异如何介导生物多样性和生产力的变化，2）导致物种之间和物种内部对压力的暴露和反应差异的因素，3）胁迫引起的新的生物相互作用对未来生态系统状态和功能的潜在影响。 方法：我的研究计划侧重于鱼类及其在热带大西洋珊瑚礁和温带太平洋海带森林生态系统中的相互作用，这些生态系统受到多种人为压力的影响，包括栖息地丧失，过度开发，生物入侵和加剧气候变化。通过结合实地研究、实验室实验和定量建模，我将回答三个关键问题： 1.压力如何影响群落多样性和生物量的模式？我将在南佛罗里达的沿海珊瑚礁和红树林栖息地进行一项大规模的鱼类metacitities的实地实验，暴露于两个人为的压力（栖息地破坏和捕鱼）。这项工作将阐明海洋系统及其居民的特点，这些特点调节生物多样性和生产力在空间和时间上的变化。 2.什么样的机制控制着物种间的压力暴露和反应的变化？我将调查如何暴露和热应力和捕食风险的反应不同的最大体型和栖息地利用鱼类之间，以及如何暴露的历史影响基于大小的捕食者-猎物的相互作用，通过实验室研究和建模，补充我们的大规模实地研究南佛罗里达。 3.新的相互作用将如何影响未来的生态系统结构和功能？我将研究行为和形态的影响，独立于物种的身份，对新的捕食者和猎物之间的相互作用的强度，很可能会遇到对方，由于气候变化，在温带太平洋生态系统。关注影响捕食事件中连续步骤结果的一般特征，使我能够预测物种相互作用的强度，这些相互作用现在不会共同发生，但将来可能会发生。 影响：这项研究将产生新的，通用的方法来预测持续的人为压力对海洋生态系统的影响，以及旨在阻止或扭转它们的干预措施的可能结果。

Rationale and objectives: Species ranges and abundances are changing at unpredicted rates due to stresses like climate change, biological invasion, and habitat destruction. What will future ecosystems look like and how will they function in the face of these major disturbances? My proposed research stands to significantly advance our ability to predict species composition and ecosystem function under future conditions by uncovering: 1) how differences in species' response to stress mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity, 2) factors driving differences in exposure and response to stress between and within species, and 3) the potential effect of new biotic interactions caused by stress on future ecosystem state and function. Approach: My research program focuses on fishes and their interactions within tropical Atlantic coral reef and temperate Pacific kelp forests ecosystems which are affected by multiple anthropogenic stresses including habitat loss, over-exploitation, biological invasion, and intensifying climate change. Through a combination of field study, laboratory experiments, and quantitative modeling, I will answer three key questions: 1. How does stress affect patterns of community diversity and biomass? I will conduct a large-scale field experiment of fish metacommunities in coastal coral reef and mangrove habitats in South Florida exposed to two man-made stressors (habitat destruction and fishing). This work will shed light on features of marine systems and their inhabitants that mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity over space and time. 2. What mechanisms govern variation in stress exposure and response between species? I will investigate how exposure and response to thermal stress and predation risk varies among fishes of different maximum body size and habitat use, and how exposure history affects size-based predator-prey interactions through laboratory studies and modeling that complement our large-scale field study in South Florida. 3. How will novel interactions affect future ecosystem structure and function? I will examine the effects of behaviour and morphology, independent from species identity, on the strength of interactions between novel pairs of predators and prey that are likely to encounter one another due to climate change in temperate Pacific ecosystems. Focusing on general characteristics that affect the outcome of successive steps during predation events allows me to make predictions about the strength of species interactions that don't co-occur now, but are likely to in future. Impact: This research will produce novel, general methods for predicting the effects of continued human-mediated stress on marine ecosystems, and the likely results of interventions designed to halt or reverse them.