Community reassembly in changing seascapes: patterns, processes, and consequences

基本原理和目标：由于气候变化、生物入侵和栖息地破坏等压力，物种范围和丰度正在以不可预测的速度变化。面对这些重大干扰，未来的生态系统将是什么样子？它们将如何发挥作用？我提议的研究将显著提高我们在未来条件下预测物种组成和生态系统功能的能力，揭示：1)物种对压力的反应差异如何调节生物多样性和生产力的变化，2)物种之间和物种内部暴露和对压力的反应的差异的驱动因素，以及3)由压力引起的新的生物相互作用对未来生态系统状态和功能的潜在影响。 方法：我的研究重点是热带大西洋珊瑚礁和温带太平洋海带森林生态系统中的鱼类及其相互作用，这些生态系统受到多种人为压力的影响，包括栖息地丧失、过度开发、生物入侵和加剧的气候变化。通过实地研究、实验室实验和定量建模相结合，我将回答三个关键问题： 1.压力如何影响群落多样性和生物量的格局？我将对南佛罗里达州沿海珊瑚礁和红树林生境中的鱼类集合群落进行大规模的野外实验，这些群落暴露在两种人为压力下(栖息地破坏和捕鱼)。这项工作将阐明海洋系统及其居民在空间和时间上调节生物多样性和生产力变化的特征。 2.是什么机制控制了物种间压力暴露和反应的差异？我将通过实验室研究和建模来调查不同最大体型和栖息地使用的鱼类对热应激和捕食风险的暴露和反应如何不同，以及暴露历史如何影响基于大小的捕食者-猎物相互作用，这些研究和建模补充了我们在南佛罗里达州的大规模实地研究。 3.新的相互作用将如何影响未来的生态系统结构和功能？我将研究与物种身份无关的行为和形态对新型捕食者和猎物之间相互作用强度的影响，这些捕食者和猎物可能会因气候变化而在温带太平洋生态系统中相遇。专注于影响捕食事件中连续步骤结果的一般特征，使我能够预测物种相互作用的强度，这些相互作用现在不会共同发生，但未来可能会发生。 影响：这项研究将产生新的、一般的方法来预测持续的人为压力对海洋生态系统的影响，以及旨在阻止或逆转这些压力的干预措施的可能结果。

Rationale and objectives: Species ranges and abundances are changing at unpredicted rates due to stresses like climate change, biological invasion, and habitat destruction. What will future ecosystems look like and how will they function in the face of these major disturbances? My proposed research stands to significantly advance our ability to predict species composition and ecosystem function under future conditions by uncovering: 1) how differences in species' response to stress mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity, 2) factors driving differences in exposure and response to stress between and within species, and 3) the potential effect of new biotic interactions caused by stress on future ecosystem state and function. Approach: My research program focuses on fishes and their interactions within tropical Atlantic coral reef and temperate Pacific kelp forests ecosystems which are affected by multiple anthropogenic stresses including habitat loss, over-exploitation, biological invasion, and intensifying climate change. Through a combination of field study, laboratory experiments, and quantitative modeling, I will answer three key questions: 1. How does stress affect patterns of community diversity and biomass? I will conduct a large-scale field experiment of fish metacommunities in coastal coral reef and mangrove habitats in South Florida exposed to two man-made stressors (habitat destruction and fishing). This work will shed light on features of marine systems and their inhabitants that mediate changes in biodiversity and productivity over space and time. 2. What mechanisms govern variation in stress exposure and response between species? I will investigate how exposure and response to thermal stress and predation risk varies among fishes of different maximum body size and habitat use, and how exposure history affects size-based predator-prey interactions through laboratory studies and modeling that complement our large-scale field study in South Florida. 3. How will novel interactions affect future ecosystem structure and function? I will examine the effects of behaviour and morphology, independent from species identity, on the strength of interactions between novel pairs of predators and prey that are likely to encounter one another due to climate change in temperate Pacific ecosystems. Focusing on general characteristics that affect the outcome of successive steps during predation events allows me to make predictions about the strength of species interactions that don't co-occur now, but are likely to in future. Impact: This research will produce novel, general methods for predicting the effects of continued human-mediated stress on marine ecosystems, and the likely results of interventions designed to halt or reverse them.