Regulation as a Input for Energy Systems Design and Analysis

以较少的环境影响获得有价值的能源服务是工程和科学的一个重要目标，但这些发展必须在经济上可行才能被采用。我建议在我早先的探索奖助金奠定的坚实基础上，考虑监管和政策以及市场价格对工厂运营和建设决策的影响。我将结束循环，以了解由此产生的最优构建/运营决策对市场价格过程的影响。这里提出的研究计划分为四个相互关联的主题。*第一个主题是“缓解绿色能源对电力系统影响的新法规”，调查了一项惩罚无法兑现承诺电力的风力发电商的法规的影响。这将减轻发电商的影响，这些发电商利用获得固定上网电价的确定性，始终向电网供电。这一新规定可能会鼓励对能源储存或更好的风力预报进行投资。问题是，有哪种选择？我们使用电力系统、存储设施和预测的日益复杂的模型来研究这个问题。其结果将是减少市场监管机构在考虑这些新规时产生的意想不到的后果。*第二个主题是“了解法规变化对实际能源选择的影响”，调查能源基础设施的所有者在得知法规(例如那些管理补贴水平的法规)将意外变化时的反应方式。它还调查了这对考虑开发新资产的投资者的影响。这项工作符合这样一种观点，即监管制度的稳定性可能比监管的当前性质更重要。补贴水平和市场价格以及产生市场价格的过程出人意料地发生变化。第三个主题“基于更复杂随机过程的价差交易策略”采用隐马尔可夫模型方法，研究了这种模型风险对能源价差金融交易者和那些凭借拥有能源基础设施进行价差交易的人的影响。第四个也是最后一个主题“了解价格和生产之间的反馈循环”结合了主题二和主题三，以了解基于实物期权的基础设施投资者的最优市场进入与价格形成之间的联系。监管可能如何抑制市场波动的想法可能来自这一领域。总体而言，这里描述的研究将提供更好的理解，以了解监管激励和建筑决策之间的联系，以及建筑决策和市场之间的联系。这些想法将刺激更准确或更稳健的长期定价模型和基于实物期权的决策工具的发展。这些模式将允许能源实物期权充分发挥潜力。*

Obtaining valuable energy services with less environmental impact is a crucial goal of engineering and science, but these developments must be economically viable in order to be adopted. I propose to build on the solid foundation laid in my earlier discovery grants to consider the impact of regulation and policy, as well as market prices, on plant operation and construction decisions. I will close the loop to see the impact of the resulting optimal build/operate decisions on market price processes. The research program proposed here is divided into four interrelated themes.*******The first theme, "New Regulations to mitigate the impact of Green Energy on the Power System", investigates the impact of a regulation which penalizes wind power producers who aren't able to deliver promised power. This will mitigate the impact of producers who use the certainty of obtaining a fixed feed in tariff to always offer power into the grid. This new regulation could encourage investment either in energy storage or in better wind forecasts. The question is, which alternative? We investigate this question using increasingly sophisticated models of the power system, the storage facility and the forecast. The outcome will be to reduce unintended consequences for market regulators contemplating these new rules.*******The second theme, "Understanding the impact of changing regulations on real energy options", investigates the way in which owners of energy infrastructure respond to the knowledge that regulations, for instance those governing subsidy levels, will change unexpectedly. It also investigates the implication of this for investors contemplating the development of new assets. This work fits with the idea that the stability of a regulatory regime may be more important than the current nature of the regulations.**********Subsidy levels and market prices and the processes which generate market prices unexpectedly change. Using a Hidden Markov Model approach, the third theme, "Trading Strategies on Spreads with more sophisticated stochastic processes" investigates the impact of this model risk both on financial traders of energy spreads and those who trade spreads by virtue of owning energy infrastructure.*******The fourth and final theme, "Understanding the feedback loops between price and production", combines themes two and three to understand the connection between the optimal market entry for real options - based infrastructure investors and price formation. Ideas of how regulation might damp market volatility might arise from this area.*******Overall the research described here will provide a better understanding of the connections between regulatory incentives and building decisions and between building decisions and markets. These ideas will spur the development of more accurate, or more robust, long term pricing models and real options-based decision tools. These models will allow energy real options to reach their full potential.***