Modelling of targeted regional climate phenomena and diagnostics of atmospheric energetics

* 拟议的研究方案旨在进一步了解影响区域气候的物理过程，包括大气动力学及其自然变化，以及预期的人类活动引起的全球变暖所造成的相关变化。该研究计划围绕两个互补的调查路线进行阐述：最近过去风暴的详细能量学分析和预测的温暖世界，以及基于事件的非常高分辨率区域气候建模。沿着第一个研究轴心，将在分析观测和高分辨率气候模型历史模拟和未来预测的基础上进行创新的大气能量计算。诊断性能量研究是气候建模的补充工具，可用于探测地球气候系统，了解在不断变化的强迫作用下导致其维持、波动和演变的物理过程。建议在选定的风暴路径上进行详细的大气能量收支，基于新的方法，不同于Lorenz提出的更知名的可用位能（APE）方法，可用焓（AE）是适用于本地的，因此适合于单个风暴的研究。有信心的AE方法的鲁棒性的基础上，我们最近的工作，我们建议进行详细的能量的生命周期的风暴发生在最近的过去，并比较这些与那些预计为未来的人为变暖。** 第二个研究方向旨在设计一个有效的模拟协议，以实现前所未有的高分辨率区域气候预测，在今天的超级计算机上以负担得起的计算成本。通过进行级联的伸缩网格，其中非常高的分辨率只被激活的事件的选定过程中的研究，计算节省一到两个数量级将实现。节省下来的资金可以再投资于在当前一代超级计算机上进行前所未有的详细气候模拟。这些发现将为下一代区域气候模式铺平道路，改进方法，以负担得起的计算成本实现非常高分辨率的气候模拟。这一研究方案的结果将为进行和解释下一个十年的高分辨率气候预测提供科学基础和技术框架。反过来，这些结果将为制定适应措施的信息决策提供依据，以减少加拿大人对人为全球气候变化预期区域影响的脆弱性。

***The proposed research programme aims at furthering the understanding of the physical processes affecting regional climate, including the atmospheric dynamics and its natural variability, and the associated changes resulting from the anticipated global warming of anthropogenic origin. The research programme is articulated around two complementary lines of investigation: Detailed energetics analysis of storms in recent past and projected warmer world, and event-based very high resolution regional climate modelling.******Along a first axis of research, innovative atmospheric energetic calculations will be performed on analyses of observations and high-resolution climate model historical simulations and future projections. Diagnostic energetic studies constitute complementary tools to climate modelling for probing the Earth's climate system and understanding the physical processes responsible for its maintenance, fluctuations and evolution under changing forcing. It is proposed to carry detailed atmospheric energetic budget over selected storm tracks, based on the novel approach of available enthalpy (AE) that, unlike the better-known available potential energy (APE) approach proposed by Lorenz, is applicable locally, and hence is suited for the study of individual storms. Confident in the robustness of the AE approach based on our recent work, we propose to carry detailed energetics of the life cycle of storms that have occurred in recent past and compare these with those that are projected for the future under anthropogenic warming. ******The second axis of research aims at designing an efficient simulation protocol to achieve regional climate projections of unprecedented high resolution, at an affordable computational cost on today's supercomputers. By carrying a cascade of telescoping grids in which the very high resolution is only activated for the events of the selected process under study, computing savings of one to two orders of magnitude will be achieved. The saving could then be reinvested in performing unprecedented detailed climate simulations on the current generation of supercomputers. These findings will pave the way for the next generation of Regional Climate Models with improved approaches for achieving very high-resolution climate simulations at an affordable computational cost.******The results of this research programme will provide the scientific basis and technological framework for performing and interpreting high-resolution climate projections for the next decade. In turn these results will feed information-based decisions for the development of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of Canadians to anticipated regional impacts of anthropogenic global climate changes.