Modelling of targeted regional climate phenomena and diagnostics of atmospheric energetics

拟议的研究方案旨在进一步了解影响区域气候的物理过程，包括大气动力学及其自然变率，以及预期的由人为原因引起的全球变暖所引起的有关变化。该研究计划围绕两个互补的调查线进行阐述：最近过去和预测的变暖世界的风暴的详细能量学分析，以及基于事件的非常高分辨率区域气候模型。******在研究的第一个方向上，创新的大气能量计算将在观测分析和高分辨率气候模式历史模拟和未来预测上进行。诊断性能量研究是气候模拟的补充工具，用于探测地球气候系统并了解在变化强迫下导致其维持、波动和演变的物理过程。基于有效焓（AE）的新方法，建议在选定的风暴路径上进行详细的大气能量预算，与Lorenz提出的有效势能（APE）方法不同，该方法适用于局部，因此适合于单个风暴的研究。基于我们最近的工作，我们对声发射方法的稳健性充满信心，我们建议对最近过去发生的风暴的生命周期进行详细的能量学分析，并将其与在人为变暖的情况下对未来的预测进行比较。******研究的第二个轴旨在设计一个有效的模拟协议，以实现前所未有的高分辨率的区域气候预测，在今天的超级计算机上以负担得起的计算成本。通过携带一系列可伸缩网格，其中非常高的分辨率只对所研究的选定过程的事件激活，将实现一到两个数量级的计算节省。节省下来的钱可以再投资于在当前一代超级计算机上进行前所未有的详细气候模拟。这些发现将为下一代区域气候模式铺平道路，通过改进的方法以可承受的计算成本实现高分辨率的气候模拟。******这一研究方案的结果将为今后十年进行和解释高分辨率气候预测提供科学基础和技术框架。反过来，这些结果将为制定适应措施提供基于信息的决策，以减少加拿大人对预期的人为全球气候变化区域影响的脆弱性。

***The proposed research programme aims at furthering the understanding of the physical processes affecting regional climate, including the atmospheric dynamics and its natural variability, and the associated changes resulting from the anticipated global warming of anthropogenic origin. The research programme is articulated around two complementary lines of investigation: Detailed energetics analysis of storms in recent past and projected warmer world, and event-based very high resolution regional climate modelling.******Along a first axis of research, innovative atmospheric energetic calculations will be performed on analyses of observations and high-resolution climate model historical simulations and future projections. Diagnostic energetic studies constitute complementary tools to climate modelling for probing the Earth's climate system and understanding the physical processes responsible for its maintenance, fluctuations and evolution under changing forcing. It is proposed to carry detailed atmospheric energetic budget over selected storm tracks, based on the novel approach of available enthalpy (AE) that, unlike the better-known available potential energy (APE) approach proposed by Lorenz, is applicable locally, and hence is suited for the study of individual storms. Confident in the robustness of the AE approach based on our recent work, we propose to carry detailed energetics of the life cycle of storms that have occurred in recent past and compare these with those that are projected for the future under anthropogenic warming. ******The second axis of research aims at designing an efficient simulation protocol to achieve regional climate projections of unprecedented high resolution, at an affordable computational cost on today's supercomputers. By carrying a cascade of telescoping grids in which the very high resolution is only activated for the events of the selected process under study, computing savings of one to two orders of magnitude will be achieved. The saving could then be reinvested in performing unprecedented detailed climate simulations on the current generation of supercomputers. These findings will pave the way for the next generation of Regional Climate Models with improved approaches for achieving very high-resolution climate simulations at an affordable computational cost.******The results of this research programme will provide the scientific basis and technological framework for performing and interpreting high-resolution climate projections for the next decade. In turn these results will feed information-based decisions for the development of adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerability of Canadians to anticipated regional impacts of anthropogenic global climate changes.