Assessment of uncertainty in 2D and 3D geostatistical models for use in steam assisted gravity drainage prediction

用于蒸汽辅助重力排水预测的 2D 和 3D 地质统计模型的不确定性评估

• 批准号: 556022-2020
• 负责人: Boisvert, Jeff
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Alliance Grants
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=705717
• 关键词: Assessment; uncertainty; 2D; 3D; geostatistical

Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is used to produce hydrocarbons from the Athabasca Oil Sands. Geostatistical methods are used to model properties of the oil sands that are then used to forecast oil production, steam usage and energy consumption. Properties include porosity, bitumen content, permeability and rock type. Modeling these properties involves estimating or simulating unknown quantities at every unsampled location in the deposit on a grid and usually with uncertainty. These estimates are made using all available information such as geophysical surveys, well data, seismic, geochemical, geomechanical, etc. The overall goal of the proposed work is to accurately predict uncertainty in a SAGD environment by correctly accounting for uncertainty in all modeling aspects. When implementing current best practice uncertainty assessment methodologies, there is a discrepancy between uncertainty calculated using 2D or 3D models. Typically 2D models are used to calculate oil in place global resources/reserves while 3D models are used for oil production prediction with flow simulation. The goals of this project are to (1) reconcile differences between 2D and 3D uncertainty models (2) propose methodologies to effectively estimate global uncertainty consistently for 2D or 3D models including trend uncertainty and (3) investigate the impact of correctly modeling uncertainty on SAGD performance prediction, well placement and economic/environmental considerations for multiple SAGD pads.

蒸汽辅助重力泄油（SAGD）用于从阿萨巴斯卡油砂中生产碳氢化合物。地质统计学方法用于模拟油砂的性质，然后用于预测石油产量，蒸汽使用量和能源消耗。性质包括孔隙度、沥青含量、渗透率和岩石类型。对这些性质进行建模涉及在网格上估计或模拟存款中每个未采样位置处的未知量，并且通常具有不确定性。这些估计是使用所有可用的信息，如地球物理调查，井数据，地震，地球化学，地质力学等，所提出的工作的总体目标是准确地预测在SAGD环境中的不确定性，通过正确地考虑在所有建模方面的不确定性。在实施当前最佳实践不确定性评估方法时，使用2D或3D模型计算的不确定性之间存在差异。通常，2D模型用于计算石油地质储量/全球资源量，而3D模型用于通过流动模拟进行石油产量预测。该项目的目标是（1）协调二维和三维不确定性模型之间的差异（2）提出方法，以有效地估计二维或三维模型的全局不确定性，包括趋势不确定性，以及（3）研究正确建模不确定性对SAGD性能预测的影响，以及多个SAGD垫的经济/环境考虑。