Using species distribution and metapopulation models to prioritize conservation actions for threatened species

使用物种分布和集合种群模型确定受威胁物种保护行动的优先顺序

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-06147
• 负责人: Bennett, Joseph
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Carleton University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=710175
• 关键词: Using; species; distribution; metapopulation; models

Global conservation efforts fall far short of what is required to halt the current extinction crisis. Conservation agencies must prioritize resources, usually by assigning ranks or threat categories based on the estimated probability that a species will go extinct without intervention. Such estimates depend on assessments of both threats and habitat availability. However, new research has shown that threat assessments can be biased if conducted at a single spatial or temporal scale, and that previously-assumed source habitats may actually be sinks. In addition, extinction probability may be underestimated, especially for species in isolated populations and whose decline is slow. Thus, many species may be currently neglected or mismanaged. Models predicting species distributions at multiple scales in space and time, and metapopulation models that mathematically depict interconnected populations, have the potential to greatly improve threat and habitat assessments, and estimates of extinction probability. Using such models across groups of threatened species may also allow the most urgent conservation actions to be determined, to help prevent extinctions. However, the costs of the monitoring data necessary for constructing such models must be balanced against the costs of acting on current knowledge. My proposed research will quantitatively determine the utility of multiple-scale, dynamic species distribution and metapopulation models for refining extinction risk estimates, and guiding conservation. My students and I will use uniquely detailed datasets on populations and proposed conservation actions from New Zealand and New South Wales, as well as smaller-scale datasets we collect from biodiversity hotspots in Canada, to: 1) Develop models to determine whether current extinction risk estimates are biased for certain groups of species, and whether accounting for this bias alters the threat ranking among species; 2) Determine whether using our models to prioritize actions rather than species can lead to more biodiversity conserved, and allow actions such as habitat protection and restoration to be staggered through time; and 3) Determine when monitoring data needed to derive such models are worth gathering, and which groups of species should be monitored while others are acted upon. This research will help to resolve persistent debates about extinction probabilities for threatened species, and will test the utility of an action-based prioritization approach to conservation, which is a fundamental departure from the species-based ranking approach typically used in threatened species conservation programs. It will also address the crucial question facing conservation agencies as to when to monitor species and when to act on existing information, and improve the biological basis for conservation decision-making, potentially leading to more species saved from extinction.

全球保护工作远远达不到制止目前灭绝危机的要求。保护机构必须优先考虑资源，通常是根据一个物种在没有干预的情况下灭绝的估计概率来分配等级或威胁类别。这种估计取决于对威胁和生境可用性的评估。然而，新的研究表明，如果在单一的空间或时间尺度上进行威胁评估，可能会有偏见，而且以前假设的源栖息地实际上可能是汇。此外，灭绝概率可能被低估，特别是对于孤立种群中的物种，其下降速度很慢。因此，许多物种目前可能被忽视或管理不善。在空间和时间的多个尺度上预测物种分布的模型，以及在数学上描述相互关联的种群的集合种群模型，有可能大大改善威胁和栖息地评估，以及灭绝概率的估计。在受威胁物种群体中使用这种模型也可以确定最紧急的保护行动，以帮助防止灭绝。然而，构建这种模型所需的监测数据的成本必须与根据现有知识采取行动的成本相平衡。 我提出的研究将定量地确定多尺度，动态物种分布和集合种群模型的效用，以改进灭绝风险估计，并指导保护。我和我的学生将使用新西兰和新南威尔士州的人口和拟议保护行动的独特详细数据集，以及我们从加拿大生物多样性热点收集的小规模数据集，以：1）开发模型来确定当前灭绝风险估计是否对某些物种群体有偏见，以及这种偏见是否会改变物种之间的威胁排名; 2）确定使用我们的模型来优先考虑行动而不是物种是否可以导致更多的生物多样性保护，并允许栖息地保护和恢复等行动随着时间的推移而交错; 3）确定何时需要收集这些模型所需的监测数据，以及哪些物种组应该被监测，而其他物种则应采取行动。这项研究将有助于解决持久的争论灭绝的可能性为受威胁的物种，并将测试实用程序的基于行动的优先次序的方法来保护，这是一个根本的偏离基于物种的排名方法通常用于受威胁的物种保护计划。它还将解决保护机构面临的关键问题，即何时监测物种以及何时根据现有信息采取行动，并改善保护决策的生物学基础，可能导致更多物种免于灭绝。