Using species distribution and metapopulation models to prioritize conservation actions for threatened species

使用物种分布和集合种群模型确定受威胁物种保护行动的优先顺序

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-06147
• 负责人: Bennett, Joseph
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Carleton University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=745613
• 关键词: Using; species; distribution; metapopulation; models

Global conservation efforts fall far short of what is required to halt the current extinction crisis. Conservation agencies must prioritize resources, usually by assigning ranks or threat categories based on the estimated probability that a species will go extinct without intervention. Such estimates depend on assessments of both threats and habitat availability. However, new research has shown that threat assessments can be biased if conducted at a single spatial or temporal scale, and that previously-assumed source habitats may actually be sinks. In addition, extinction probability may be underestimated, especially for species in isolated populations and whose decline is slow. Thus, many species may be currently neglected or mismanaged. Models predicting species distributions at multiple scales in space and time, and metapopulation models that mathematically depict interconnected populations, have the potential to greatly improve threat and habitat assessments, and estimates of extinction probability. Using such models across groups of threatened species may also allow the most urgent conservation actions to be determined, to help prevent extinctions. However, the costs of the monitoring data necessary for constructing such models must be balanced against the costs of acting on current knowledge.My proposed research will quantitatively determine the utility of multiple-scale, dynamic species distribution and metapopulation models for refining extinction risk estimates, and guiding conservation. My students and I will use uniquely detailed datasets on populations and proposed conservation actions from New Zealand and New South Wales, as well as smaller-scale datasets we collect from biodiversity hotspots in Canada, to: 1) Develop models to determine whether current extinction risk estimates are biased for certain groups of species, and whether accounting for this bias alters the threat ranking among species; 2) Determine whether using our models to prioritize actions rather than species can lead to more biodiversity conserved, and allow actions such as habitat protection and restoration to be staggered through time; and 3) Determine when monitoring data needed to derive such models are worth gathering, and which groups of species should be monitored while others are acted upon. This research will help to resolve persistent debates about extinction probabilities for threatened species, and will test the utility of an action-based prioritization approach to conservation, which is a fundamental departure from the species-based ranking approach typically used in threatened species conservation programs. It will also address the crucial question facing conservation agencies as to when to monitor species and when to act on existing information, and improve the biological basis for conservation decision-making, potentially leading to more species saved from extinction.

全球保护工作远远远远远远没有停止当前灭绝危机。保护机构必须根据基于估计的概率分配等级或威胁类别的优先级，即物种在不干预的情况下灭绝的概率。这样的估计取决于对威胁和栖息地可用性的评估。但是，新的研究表明，如果以单个空间或时间尺度进行威胁评估，威胁评估实际上可能是沉没的。此外，灭绝概率可能被低估了，特别是对于孤立人群中的物种，其下降速度缓慢。因此，目前可能被忽视或不雄辩的许多物种。模型在空间和时间上多个尺度上预测物种分布，以及数学描述相互联系的种群模型，有可能大大改善威胁和栖息地评估以及灭绝概率的估计。在受威胁物种群体之间使用此类模型也可能允许确定最紧急的保护行动，以帮助防止灭绝。但是，构建此类模型所需的监视数据的成本必须与对当前知识的作用成本保持平衡。我提出的研究将定量确定多个规模，动态物种分布和精炼灭绝风险估计和指导保护的效用。我和我的学生将使用有关新西兰和新南威尔士州的人口和拟议的保护行动的独特详细数据集，以及我们从加拿大的生物多样性热点收集的较小规模的数据集，以：1）开发模型，以确定当前的灭绝风险估计是否偏向某些偏见，以及该偏见的偏见范围是否有偏见的威胁等级，该物种是否属于物种的物种； 2）确定使用我们的模型来优先采取行动而不是物种可以导致更多的生物多样性保存，并允许在随着时间的推移中跨越栖息地和恢复等行动； 3）确定何时监视得出此类模型所需的数据值得收集，以及应监测哪些物种，而其他物种则被采取。这项研究将有助于解决有关受威胁物种的灭绝概率的持续辩论，并将测试基于动作的优先级保护方法的实用性，这与通常用于威胁性物种保护计划中通常使用的基于物种的排名方法的基本偏离。它还将解决保护机构面临的至关重要的问题，即何时监测物种以及何时对现有信息采取行动，并改善保护决策的生物学基础，可能导致更多的物种免于灭绝。