Predictive ecology in a world with dynamic data and models

许多生态研究小组的首要目标是预测生态系统、物种或过程。事实上，对于许多研究人员来说，大规模的生态预测构成了当今一些最具挑战性的生态和保护问题的支柱，例如为广泛的物种建立保护策略。然而，大规模研究的关键挑战之一是，过程以及它们在空间上的相对重要性是如何随着时间而变化的。不断变化的未来条件使得理解系统内关键的生态机制变得至关重要，因为如果没有一些机制上的理解，经验相关性将更快失效。

An overarching objective of many ecological research groups is to forecast ecosystems, species or processes. Indeed, for many researchers, large-scale ecological forecasts form the backbone of some of the most challenging ecological and conservation problems of today, such as building conservation strategies for wide-ranging species. One of the key challenges for large-scale studies, however, is that processes, and how their relative importance varies in space, are changing through time. Changing future conditions make it critical to understand key ecological mechanisms within a system, as empirical correlations will fail sooner without some mechanistic understanding. The long term objective is to build a new vision and reality for ecological simulation models. This involves building and using open systems based around R, building new -- and adapting our and other's existing -- ecological models that are open and interchangeable. Once these are done, we will evaluate emergent phenomena, such as stability, resilience, and feedbacks to inform land management at continental scales. The specific objectives here are 1) to build a new, large-scale, plant-functional-trait succession model, 2) test this in a wide array of systems, and 3) evaluate ecological consequences and trade-offs between vegetation management (e.g., carbon sequestration) and other management practices (e.g., caribou, fire, pest, and logging). This research will have 3 different levels of impact. First, the tools we will develop will be useful for the scientific community and its need to build new models. Second, the new models we will develop will be available for use in the new and open/interchangeable modeling and decision making community. Third, we will produce web apps that will allow the public to become involved in ecological models, allowing a transparency of decision making that has rarely been available. This will allow for a new level of outreach and connection to a much wider audience than previously envisioned for ecological models and modelers.