Dispersal and reproduction in changing environments

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Ecosystems worldwide are changing dramatically because of changing climate, habitat fragmentation, introduced species and changing management goals. As a result, plants and animals likely will need to disperse longer distances than previously in order to find suitable habitats. It is unclear how successful species dispersal will be in these new environments and our predictions of their movements are poor at best. To provide predictions for managers, scientists, and the public, this research will examine dispersal and movement of three important species, whitebark pine (WBP), white spruce, and wolves as well as reproductive effort of WBP.  Whitebark pine is a high elevation keystone species in the western mountains of North America. It is currently in decline due to an invasive disease, human-driven fire suppression and a climate that is dramatically improving the conditions for the devastating mountain pine beetle. In this research, I will examine the potential for this species to produce enough seeds and disperse to recreate healthy forests of whitebark pine.  White spruce, a dominant species in the boreal forests of North America, colonizes areas that have had recent forest fires. Currently, it appears that white spruce has not been recolonizing recent burns in South central Yukon, and this may be due to a combination of changing climate and dispersal problems. I will examine dispersal in conjunction with climate factors to tease apart the reasons for the apparent lack of success and to anticipate future changes in currently, formerly and potentially white spruce forests.  In many places in the world, large carnivores are recolonizing with direct or indirect assistance by humans. For example, wolves in the North America and Europe are recolonizing many areas after decades of being absent due to hunting. While there are people both for and against the recolonization, most people are interested in determining where and when they will disperse, what their impacts will be, and how to manage them. I will use state-of-the-art GPS collars combined with modern modeling tools to anticipate their dispersal into new areas to allow for human communities to anticipate the potential impacts.