Illuminating Mechanisms of Resilience to Climate Change in Marine Ecosystems

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Vibrant coral reefs are the world's most biologically diverse marine ecosystems. They are also the most vulnerable to climate change. Although climate change will significantly impact all ocean life in the coming decades, the future of coral reefs is under imminent threat from pulse heat-stress events like the increasingly frequent and severe El Nios. Heat stress of even 1C disrupts the vital association between the coral animal and its microscopic algal symbionts, causing the coral to bleach. Because these symbionts fuel coral growth, prolonged bleaching can cause the coral to starve to death. Heat stress from the 2015-2016 El Nio event triggered the worst global coral bleaching and mass mortality event on record. Christmas Island, the central equatorial Pacific atoll where my team and I have worked for the past decade, was ground zero. Heat stress on its reefs persisted for ten consecutive months, resulting in 90% coral mortality. This loss is devastating. We must learn from it. This event presents an exceptional opportunity to study: 1) how some corals managed to survive unprecedented heat stress; 2) how extensive coral loss impacts biodiversity, habitat complexity and reef fish communities; 3) recovery rates, and which factors are most vital to enhance recovery; and 4) how overall ecosystem resilience is changing. We will investigate these questions through intensive study of Christmas Island's coral reefs over the next five years and the synthesis of these new data with the wealth of coral, algae, fish, and environmental data we collected at our 40 monitoring sites around the atoll in expeditions before, during and immediately after the El Nio. We will evaluate the generality of insights from Christmas Island through analyses of coral monitoring data from across the Pacific Ocean, including regions with variable coral bleaching histories. Finally, we will synthesize evidence for climate change impacts and resilience mechanisms across marine ecosystems globally. Our work will provide critical insight into the question of whether protecting the ocean from local stressors, like fishing and pollution, enhances its resilience to climate change. It will advance biodiversity and resilience theory, and it will provide Canada with the knowledge and intellectual capacity to develop management solutions that can ensure our oceans are resilient for generations to come. This research program is built on innovative integrated use of underwater surveys and collections, novel 3D imagery and modeling techniques, molecular analyses, remote sensing, and cutting-edge bioinformatics and statistics. I will train a large team of undergraduate and graduate students, and postdoctoral fellows in these methods, and I will continue my strong history of providing them with indispensable skills for their careers in science, including critical-thinking, data management, writing, and science communication.