Interplay between summer and winter climate change in reshaping marine biodiversity

在夏季（如热浪和低氧事件）和冬季（寒冷期）都发生有害条件的年份，跨季节的极端环境的强烈波动可能对物种构成双重危险。例如，对于那些通过降低代谢率而不是进食来过冬的物种来说，邦蒂富尔的夏季对于它们在严冬中的生存至关重要。同样，在冬季保持活跃需要足够的食物资源，以满足抵御冬季所需的能量。严酷的冬季之后是夏季，这是生理上的要求或对喂养施加限制，可能会导致个体死亡和人口下降。然而，尽管冬季气候变化在寒冷月份持续半年以上的地区的作用是一种明显的力量，有可能重塑生物多样性，但气候变化生态学领域的重点是温度升高的生物影响，通常是在一年中最温暖的月份。 我的研究计划将通过将冬季气候变化的信号纳入实地工作，实验和模型来解决我们对气候变化如何影响个人生理学的理解中的这一差距，以塑造生物多样性变化。我预测，能量限制和死亡率将在连续的严冬和酷暑中表现得最强烈，这反过来将导致人口和社区在空间和时间上发生最强烈的变化。为了测试季节条件和生物多样性模式之间的相互作用，我的程序将操纵暴露于环境参数的幅度和持续时间，量化生理限制，并提供数据来构建能量预算，人口和营养网模型。模型预测将根据实地调查数据和实验结果进行测试。这套方法将转化为以下能力：（1）量化不同季节的时间生物多样性模式;（2）从基本原则出发，预测极端事件在空间和时间上的不同季节模式下的生物多样性变化;（3）开发理论和工具，以弥合生理、人口、社区和生态系统规模。 我们的重点将放在最容易受到气候变化影响并发挥关键社区作用的类群上，包括顶级捕食者（海鸟），栖息地形成者（海藻和海绵），具有文化和经济价值（大西洋鳕鱼和龙虾）或负面影响（入侵绿色蟹）。通过将季节性趋势确定为生物反应的关键气候变化驱动因素，我们将为渔业、重要生态系统脆弱性预测和物种入侵提供具有重要意义的见解。我的实验室的研究将通过将生理模型与自然界的生物多样性模式联系起来，揭示季节动态的变化，特别是冬季条件，如何改变加拿大及其他地区的海洋生物多样性模式，从而引领气候变化生态学领域。

Strong swings in environmental extremes across seasons may pose a double jeopardy to species in years when detrimental conditions occur in both summer (such as heat waves and low oxygen events) and winter (cold spells). For instance, in species that overwinter by reducing their metabolic rate instead of feeding, bountiful summers are critical to surviving harsh winters. Likewise, remaining active during the winter requires adequate food resources to meet the energy required to withstand the winter season. Harsh winters followed by summers that are physiologically demanding or impose constraints on feeding may result in the death of individuals and population decline. Yet although the role of winter climate change in regions where cold months persist for more than half the year is an obvious force with potential to reshape biodiversity, the field of climate change ecology has focused on the biological impacts of increasing temperature, often in the warmest months of the year. My research program will tackle this gap in our understanding of how climate change influences individual physiology to shape biodiversity change by incorporating signals of winter climate change into field work, experiments and models. I predict energetic constraints and mortality will manifest most strongly during consecutive harsh winters and summers, which in turn will lead to the strongest changes in populations and communities in both space and time. To test for an interplay between seasonal conditions and biodiversity patterns, my program will manipulate the magnitude and duration of exposure to environmental parameters, quantify physiological limits, and provide the data to build energy budget, population and trophic web models. Model predictions will be tested against field survey data and experimental outcomes. This suite of approaches will translate to a capacity to (1) quantify temporal biodiversity patterns in different seasons; (2) project biodiversity change under different seasonal patterns of extreme events in space and time from first principles; and (3) develop theory and tools to bridge physiological, population, community and ecosystem scales. Our focus will be on taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change and play key community roles including top predators (seabirds), habitat-formers (seaweeds and sponges), those with cultural and economic value (Atlantic cod and lobster) or negative impacts (invasive green crab). By identifying seasonal trends as key climate-change drivers of biological responses, we will provide insights with significance for fisheries, predictions for the vulnerability of important ecosystems, and species invasions. My lab's research will lead the field of climate-change ecology by linking physiological models to biodiversity patterns in nature to reveal how changing seasonal dynamics, particularly winter conditions, are altering marine biodiversity patterns in Canada and beyond.