Models of avian migration: development and empirical tests using automated radio-telemetry

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Evidence from around the Earth indicates that weather patterns and climate regimes are shifting, and society must address whether and how animal populations will keep pace with the rate of environmental change. In highly seasonal environments like those of Canada, the timing of migration and reproduction strongly influences reproductive fitness. Yet optimal timing can be difficult to achieve due to environmental variability occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. To predict responses of populations, we need to strengthen our understanding of how individuals anticipate seasonal change and respond to environmental variability across entire migratory journeys. We also can no longer ignore sex and age differences in the timing of migration and reproduction, because the way individuals respond to abiotic and biotic factors likely will be sex- and age-specific. My research program is uncovering key mechanisms that influence how animals time their migratory and reproductive events in response to environmental factors. My proposed discovery research program will focus on the migration of North American songbirds in the Laurentian Great Lakes ecoregion. My research program has revealed new insights about adaptive individual-based variation in seasonal timing in salmon and birds, and a broad theme has emerged. My data suggest that individual animals may flexibly adjust their timing of migration and reproduction to maximize fitness, which may hasten adaptation to climate change. However, we are still not close to predicting population responses. My next step will be to integrate models and empirical studies of the specific mechanisms that drive migratory movements in songbirds. To significantly advance my research program, I am proposing three short-term objectives, each of which relates to a behavioural flexibility in migration timing in songbirds. Objective I is to develop spatially-explicit models of age- and sex-specific migration to link individual behaviour to population-level effects. Objective II is to test model predictions regarding age effects on migration by tracking birds with a state-of-the-art, automated, digital radiotelemetry system. Objective III is to experimentally test the hypothesis that time constraints and social facilitation affect migration speed. My research program will advance basic knowledge of how songbirds migrate successfully across a dynamic landscape. Songbirds have exceptional ecological, economic, and cultural importance to Canada, and they serve as sentinels of ecosystem health. Over the next 5 years, I will train 17 new students and 8 other trainees. These trainees will become experts in the fundamentals of ecology, evolution, and behaviour, and will gain skills to study and model migration, energy use, and movement. They will become highly competent scientists working in academia, industry, government, and NGOs to determine best practices for natural resource management.