Trajectory Analytics for Data-Driven Predictions and Sequential Decision-Making Under Sequence Uncertainty

序列不确定性下数据驱动预测和序列决策的轨迹分析

• 批准号: RGPIN-2021-04249
• 负责人: Zargoush, Manaf
• 金额: $ 2.16万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=746446
• 关键词: Trajectory; Analytics; Data; Driven; Predictions

Background. Healthcare trajectories are a series of healthcare operations processes (such as prevention, diagnostic, and treatment activities) and clinical pathways (such as disease progression) executed in the healthcare system. Identifying, analyzing, and improving the healthcare trajectories has a significant impact on the healthcare costs and patient outcomes by contributing to a) improved system performance, b) controlling disease progression, and c) improved transparency. Healthcare trajectories, which are hidden in the healthcare system's event logs, are highly complex and subject to tremendous variations. Therefore, a data-driven approach, which I refer to as TRajectory Analytics (TRA), is crucial for the characterization, analysis, and improvements of healthcare trajectories through the utilization of the enormous healthcare data and the exponentially-growing computing power we have seen over the last decade. TRA aims at analyzing data and extracting hidden trajectory patterns to generate knowledge regarding the complex sequence of events and actions. Nevertheless, the field of TRA, especially in the healthcare domain, is still in its infancy stages and struggles with various limitations in terms of providing reference data-driven modeling frameworks that encompass multiple analytical scopes, including descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive tasks. Objectives. Addressing the referenced methodological and practical gaps in the context of healthcare TRA is highly aligned with my overarching long-term objectives in developing analytical frameworks for blending predictive and prescriptive analytics to improve data-driven decision-making. In the short-term, I will undertake the following steps as the research objectives over the proposed five-year program of research: 1.Predictive TRA: Developing novel method(s) for discovering and predicting healthcare trajectories from data. 2.Descriptive TRA: Proposing methods for summarizing, visualizing, and reducing the complexity of the identified trajectories in (1) by identifying the clusters of the most common trajectories in optimal fashions. 3.Prescriptive TRA: Proposing optimization frameworks and solution procedures for sequential decision-making based on the explicit utilization of the information gained in (1)-(2). This program is possible through the application of my methodological expertise/experience in healthcare analytics and the availability of rich datasets unique to my lab. Impact. On the scientific side, this research program will deliver several novel methodologies in TRA and illustrates explicit connections between the various scopes of data analytics. On the practical side, it provides the healthcare sector with the tools, scalable to other sectors, that facilitate data-driven decision-making and evidence-based leadership. On the pedagogical side, it provides unique opportunities for training Canadian-trained HQPs in Artificial Intelligence (AI) with expertise in TRA.

背景医疗轨迹是医疗系统中执行的一系列医疗操作过程（如预防、诊断和治疗活动）和临床路径（如疾病进展）。识别、分析和改进医疗保健轨迹通过有助于a）改进的系统性能、B）控制疾病进展和c）改进的透明度而对医疗保健成本和患者结果具有显著影响。隐藏在医疗保健系统的事件日志中的医疗保健轨迹是高度复杂的，并且受到巨大变化的影响。因此，数据驱动的方法，我称之为TRajectory Analytics（TRA），对于通过利用巨大的医疗数据和我们在过去十年中看到的指数增长的计算能力来表征，分析和改善医疗保健轨迹至关重要。TRA旨在分析数据并提取隐藏的轨迹模式，以生成有关事件和动作的复杂序列的知识。然而，TRA领域，特别是在医疗保健领域，仍处于起步阶段，在提供参考数据驱动的建模框架方面存在各种限制，这些框架涵盖多个分析范围，包括描述性，预测性和规定性任务。 目标.在医疗TRA的背景下解决所引用的方法和实践差距与我在开发分析框架以混合预测性和规范性分析以改善数据驱动的决策方面的总体长期目标高度一致。在短期内，我将在拟议的五年研究计划中采取以下步骤作为研究目标：1.预测TRA：开发从数据中发现和预测医疗保健轨迹的新方法。 2.描述性TRA：提出通过以最佳方式识别最常见轨迹的集群来总结、可视化和降低（1）中识别的轨迹的复杂性的方法。3.规定TRA：在明确利用（1）-（2）中获得的信息的基础上，提出了序列决策的优化框架和求解过程。 该计划是通过我在医疗分析方面的方法学专业知识/经验的应用和我实验室独有的丰富数据集的可用性而实现的。 冲击在科学方面，该研究计划将在TRA中提供几种新颖的方法，并说明数据分析的各种范围之间的明确联系。在实践方面，它为医疗保健部门提供了可扩展到其他部门的工具，促进了数据驱动的决策和基于证据的领导。在教学方面，它提供了独特的机会，培训在TRA方面具有专业知识的人工智能（AI）的HQP。