Adaptive, Multimodal Planning of Long-Distance Transportation Systems

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Long-term transportation planning is made even more complex by the impacts of climate change, both slow-onset and acute events. How can we support decisions about transportation infrastructure investments and network use, that are adaptive to these changing and uncertain conditions, so our transportation systems provide good service quality in day-to-day (regular) conditions as well as emergency (irregular) events? In this research program, I will improve models that support adaptive and multimodal use of long-distance transportation systems in response to climate change impacts, within two thematic areas of importance to Canada. In Theme 1, I explore methods to support flexible infrastructure decisions, amidst the uncertainties of slow-onset climate change impacts, across a remote multimodal transportation system in the territorial north. In Theme 2, I explore methods that support adaptive network use strategies, in preparing for acute but uncertain events like wildfire evacuation, across a province with air and ground transportation capabilities. There is demand in both the research and practice for improved methods to address these needs, in the wide existing space between high-level policy studies and tactical operations planning studies. Research contributions are made through three tasks. First, I will develop representations of the climate-infrastructure interface, by exploring the relevance of biophysical data to transportation service quality. Second, I will build a framework for benchmarking operational service quality across different modes. Third, I will develop decision-support models. The Theme 1 model will guide where and in what order staged infrastructure projects can be planned across a multimodal network, incorporating decision flexibility in response to changing conditions. The Theme 2 model will identify host communities and key evacuation corridors across a large network considering multiple priorities, to aid strategic preparation efforts prior to wildfire season. This program leverages my background in aviation and multimodal networks, and methodological skills in both empirical modelling and resource allocation methods. This research program will contribute innovative infrastructure and operations decision-support methods for long-distance multimodal transportation systems, that accommodate flexible decisions and adaptive system use in the face of climate change impacts. It will provide tools for decision-makers to allocate resources for system improvements, and provide knowledge towards setting policies to support such work. I will train diverse HQP with interdisciplinary technical skills and contextual knowledge highly sought after in Canada and internationally. The program will contribute to the achievement of improved multimodal transportation infrastructure systems, and better use of public dollars towards a safer, more economically viable, climate resilient future for Canada.