The role of chemical fuels in Canada's net zero transition

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Meeting Canada's net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets requires deployment of new technologies with unprecedented speed and scale. Given resource limitations and deployment constraints, how should we prioritize resource allocation for chemical fuels (e.g., fossil, synthetic, bio-based) infrastructure, while accounting for competing demands across sectors? Despite progress modelling net-zero transitions in electricity systems, gaps remain in analyzing the role of chemical fuels and interactions between sectors. Chemical fuels will play both transitional and ongoing roles in the Canadian energy system, especially in applications requiring high energy density or high temperatures. The focus of this work is to envision the optimal role and mix of chemical fuels across the economy while accounting for system interactions-both across sectors and among fuel production pathways. We will adapt an existing framework to build a provincially disaggregated energy system model (with an initial focus on Ontario and Alberta) and expand that model to include more detailed technology representation and more credible policy scenario constraints than has been done previously. A system-wide perspective will ensure energy choices are consistent with GHG reduction targets, and a complete energy system model will enable us to model the consequences and limits of technology diffusion and capture sectoral interactions. The research will aim for greater detail in modelling heavy industry and transportation as a test bed for identifying relevant interactions. Key outcomes will include new insights into the optimal role and mix of chemical fuels; improved modelling of technical and economic parameters for key sectors and energy production pathways; identification of novel system interactions that may facilitate or hinder the net-zero transition; and development of a new open-source energy system model with broad coverage across energy carriers. We will draw on established relationships with other domestic and international energy system modelers, and close partnerships with NGOs and government agencies to design realistic scenarios and ensure model results can be translated to relevant policy and decision making.