Improving the uncertainty of plate boundary processes using an integrated paleoseismology approach

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Coastal hazards pose risk to many of the world's most populated centers. Lessons learned in the wake of recent earthquakes (2011 Tohoku) and tsunamis (2004 Indian Ocean) provide valuable insight into the intensity of events that can be expected in the future. However, long-term patterns of recurrence and intensity remain unclear as a result of the short (decadal to centennial long) instrumental record. Short-term records are not typically sufficient in capturing complete earthquake cycles and fall short of accurately identifying seismic risk. The motivation for the proposed research program is therefore to use paleoseismology (the study of past earthquakes and tsunamis preserved in the geologic record) to understand plate boundary processes that have occurred over the last centuries to millennia, and to use this new information to inform models that can be used to forecast the seismic risk to coastal communities. Over the next five years, the research program aims to: (1) investigate the link between strike-slip earthquakes and tsunami generation, and (2) assess the long-term patterns of slow slip events (SSEs) and their link to earthquake forecasting along subduction zones. A suite of field, laboratory, statistical, and modeling techniques will be used to achieve the objectives in a series of individual studies designed for graduate- and undergraduate-level research. This research capitalizes on expertise in paleoseismology, modeling, and chronology by drawing on established collaborations with government and academic institutions in New Zealand (e.g., GNS Science), Japan (e.g., Geological Survey of Japan), and Europe (e.g., Maynooth University). Individual studies involve fieldwork in Indonesia and New Zealand to collect new sedimentological information regarding past earthquakes and tsunamis. Collectively, these studies will enhance our ability to assess the risk of previously unconsidered tsunami sources, and improve our earthquake-forecasting ability along subduction zones. The improved understanding of plate boundary processes will have broad impact in the field of paleoseismology and will benefit hazard risk managers, city planners, and local governments.