Changes in coastal oceanography over decades and longer: Combining dynamics and downscaling

几十年或更长时间沿海海洋学的变化：动态与降尺度相结合

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03112
• 负责人: Allen, Susan
• 金额: $ 3.72万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751287
• 关键词: Changes; coastal; oceanography; over; decades

The world's coastal oceans are small compared to the open ocean but they contribute 50% of ocean biological productivity, are the regions most influenced by humans and the regions most used by humans. As with the open ocean, our coastal oceans are experiencing rapid change due to human influences including climate change and contamination. They are becoming warmer, more acidic and less oxygenated. A lot of coastal oceanography research has focused on shorter time scales: days to years. However many of the most significant questions have longer time scales. Questions such as: A) Has carbon input since pre-industrial times significantly changed the pH? Many shellfish make their shells from calcium carbonate minerals that are harder to produce and maintain as pH decreases. Thus a related, and more direct question for impacts is, has carbon input significantly changed the energy required to produce these structures? What changes are expected in the next decades? B) Have there been changes of primary productivity over the last century as suggested by the long term changes in fish production?  We have good records of fishing success but historical records of the phytoplankton and zooplankton are sparse.  Past levels need to be reconstructed to answer this question. C) How will our tides change as sea-level increases?  As sea-level rises the shape of our coastal regions, particularly narrow straits and deltas, change.  These changes will change the tides and thus can act to increase or decrease the impact of sea-level rise on flooding. D) How much will oxygen change in our coastal waters as climate changes? Decreases in oxygen in the open ocean and increased nutrient pollution from the land will both tend to decrease coastal oxygen but strong levels of mixing will tend to moderate that increase.  Changes in primary productivity may also have synergistic and significant effects. In this proposal, we will use information from the past and projections of the future from climate models, downscaled to the coastal region to attack these questions.  Coastal regions are complex. We will focus on the Salish Sea which contains a diversity of coastal regimes. We will use SalishSeaCast a high resolution numerical model that includes circulation, nutrients, oxygen, carbon, phytoplankton and zooplankton. Rather than "broad-brush" past reconstructions and future projections we will concentrate on the specific processes that determine the answers to each of our questions to ensure accuracy and improve understanding.  This targeted downscaling process is a new technique for this research field. In the short term, our goals are answers to the first two questions. Both answers will aid Canada in fisheries policy (shellfish aquaculture and wild and farmed salmon fisheries, respectively) by better defining what has caused the observed changes in the past and by projecting the changes we can expect to see in the future.

与开阔的海洋相比，世界的沿海海洋很小，但它们占海洋生物学产品的50％，是受人类和人类最常使用的地区最大的地区。与开阔的海洋一样，由于人类影响，包括气候变化和污染，我们的沿海海洋正在迅速变化。它们变得越来越温暖，酸性且含氧更少。许多沿海海洋学研究都集中在较短的时间尺度上：几天到几年。但是，许多最重要的问题具有更长的时间尺度。诸如以下问题之类的问题以来，自工业前时代以来是否有碳输入显着改变了pH值？许多贝类从碳酸钙矿物质中制成壳，随着pH的降低，它们很难产生和维持。相关，更直接的影响问题是，碳输入是否显着改变了产生这些结构所需的能量？未来几十年期望发生什么变化？ b）在鱼类生产的长期变化所暗示的上个世纪，主要产量发生了变化吗？我们有钓鱼成功的良好记录，但是浮游植物和浮游动物的历史记录很少。过去需要重建过去的水平以回答这个问题。 c）随着海平面的增加，我们的潮流将如何变化？随着海平面的升高，我们沿海地区的形状，尤其是狭窄的醒目和三角洲的变化。这些变化将改变潮流，因此可以采取行动增加或减少海平面上升对洪水的影响。 d）随着气候的变化，我们沿海水域的氧气会发生多少变化？在开阔的海洋中氧气减少，土地增加的养分污染都会降低沿海氧气，但强大的混合水平会降低。初级生产力的变化也可能具有协同作用和显着影响。在此提案中，我们将使用过去和未来项目的信息，从气候模型降低到沿海地区来攻击这些问题。沿海地区很复杂。我们将专注于萨利什海，其中包含各种沿海政权。我们将使用SalishSeacast的高分辨率数值模型，其中包括循环，营养，氧气，碳，浮游植物和浮游生物。而不是“宽广的”过去的重建和未来项目，而是专注于确定每个问题的答案的特定过程，以确保准确性并提高理解。这个针对性的缩小过程是该研究领域的一种新技术。在短期内，我们的目标是对前两个问题的答案。这两个答案都将通过更好地定义导致过去观察到的变化的因素以及预测我们将来会看到的变化来帮助加拿大制定渔业政策（贝类水产养殖和野生和养殖鲑鱼渔业）。