Fitness Consequences of Temperature Sensitivity in Long-Lived Ectotherms

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There is a growing interest in understanding how and why variation in temperature affects fitness, and hence the fate of individuals and populations. My research program investigates the fitness consequences of thermal sensitivity in the wild, incorporating genetic approaches, comparative methods, long-term data, and modern analytical techniques. We work at the intersection of discovery-based science and the urgency to understand and predict climate change response. Here I propose three projects that will push forward the field of thermal ecology and thermal adaptation, by changing our understanding of nature in a fundamental way (Projects 1 & 3), and by using statistical advances and unique datasets to provide new insight into classical questions (Project 2). 1) What is temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), and how is it broadly adaptive? TSD is the most common form of environmental sex determination. The adaptive significance of TSD is unclear, but it may have evolved because temperature affects condition, and male fitness is more sensitive to condition (health, vigour) than female fitness. We will use a pedigreed reptile population, comparative methods, and experiments to test this hypothesis and its extensions, including how environmental agents other than temperature should also affect both sex and condition in TSD species. 2) Lifetime fitness consequences of climate warming in ectotherms with extreme longevity We will use recent advances in Bayesian modeling techniques and two of the world's longest and most detailed individual-based datasets on growth and reproduction to test how climate warming influences individual fitness and population growth in some of the longest-lived vertebrates on earth. 3) Which traits cause sensitivity to climate change? Species that burrow may represent up to 10% of species on earth. They evolve in an environment with a narrow thermal variance and feature reduced appendages to facilitate burrowing. We will use comparative data, long-term data, and manipulative experiments to test the hypothesis that burrowing species are relatively sensitive to climate change, by virtue of narrow thermal tolerances and a curtailed ability to redistribute their ranges. My group will use cutting-edge genetic, comparative, and computational methods to revisit classic questions and test exciting new ideas in thermal ecology. This includes (1) potentially groundbreaking advances the field of sex determination that will fundamentally change our understanding of TSD; (2) leveraging over 70 years of field data to test how warming is impacting vital rates in long-lived vertebrates; and (3) using thermal performance theory to re-imagine how a species lifestyles affect extinction probability under climate change. These common themes are tackled using diverse approaches and incredible datasets, conducive to a world-class training environment for HQP in my group, and productive careers in the sciences.