Fitness Consequences of Temperature Sensitivity in Long-Lived Ectotherms

人们越来越有兴趣了解温度变化如何以及为什么会影响适应性，从而影响个体和种群的命运。我的研究项目是结合遗传方法、比较方法、长期数据和现代分析技术，调查野生环境中热敏性的适应性结果。我们在基于发现的科学和理解和预测气候变化响应的紧迫性的交叉点工作。在这里，我提出了三个将推动热生态学和热适应领域的项目，通过从根本上改变我们对自然的理解（项目1和3），并通过使用统计进步和独特的数据集为经典问题提供新的见解（项目2）。1)什么是温度依赖的性别决定（TSD），它是如何广泛适应的？创伤后应激障碍是最常见的环境性别决定形式。TSD的适应意义尚不清楚，但它可能是由于温度影响条件而进化的，而男性的适应性比女性的适应性对条件（健康、活力）更敏感。我们将使用纯种爬行动物种群，比较方法和实验来验证这一假设及其延伸，包括温度以外的环境因素如何影响TSD物种的性别和状况。我们将使用贝叶斯建模技术的最新进展和两个世界上最长和最详细的基于个体的生长和繁殖数据集来测试气候变暖如何影响地球上一些最长寿的脊椎动物的个体适应性和种群增长。3)哪些特征导致对气候变化的敏感性？挖洞的物种可能占地球物种的10%。它们在一个温度变化很小的环境中进化，并以减少附属物为特征，以方便挖洞。我们将使用比较数据、长期数据和操纵性实验来验证穴居物种对气候变化相对敏感的假设，这是因为它们对热的耐受性较窄，并且重新分布它们的范围的能力较弱。我的小组将使用尖端的遗传、比较和计算方法来重新审视经典问题，并测试热生态学中令人兴奋的新想法。这包括：(1)性别决定领域潜在的突破性进展，将从根本上改变我们对创伤后应激障碍的理解；(2)利用超过70年的野外数据来测试变暖如何影响长寿脊椎动物的生命速率；(3)利用热性能理论重新想象气候变化下物种生活方式对灭绝概率的影响。这些共同的主题使用不同的方法和令人难以置信的数据集来解决，有助于在我的团队中为HQP提供世界级的培训环境，以及在科学领域的生产性职业生涯。

There is a growing interest in understanding how and why variation in temperature affects fitness, and hence the fate of individuals and populations. My research program investigates the fitness consequences of thermal sensitivity in the wild, incorporating genetic approaches, comparative methods, long-term data, and modern analytical techniques. We work at the intersection of discovery-based science and the urgency to understand and predict climate change response. Here I propose three projects that will push forward the field of thermal ecology and thermal adaptation, by changing our understanding of nature in a fundamental way (Projects 1 & 3), and by using statistical advances and unique datasets to provide new insight into classical questions (Project 2). 1) What is temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), and how is it broadly adaptive? TSD is the most common form of environmental sex determination. The adaptive significance of TSD is unclear, but it may have evolved because temperature affects condition, and male fitness is more sensitive to condition (health, vigour) than female fitness. We will use a pedigreed reptile population, comparative methods, and experiments to test this hypothesis and its extensions, including how environmental agents other than temperature should also affect both sex and condition in TSD species. 2) Lifetime fitness consequences of climate warming in ectotherms with extreme longevity We will use recent advances in Bayesian modeling techniques and two of the world's longest and most detailed individual-based datasets on growth and reproduction to test how climate warming influences individual fitness and population growth in some of the longest-lived vertebrates on earth. 3) Which traits cause sensitivity to climate change? Species that burrow may represent up to 10% of species on earth. They evolve in an environment with a narrow thermal variance and feature reduced appendages to facilitate burrowing. We will use comparative data, long-term data, and manipulative experiments to test the hypothesis that burrowing species are relatively sensitive to climate change, by virtue of narrow thermal tolerances and a curtailed ability to redistribute their ranges. My group will use cutting-edge genetic, comparative, and computational methods to revisit classic questions and test exciting new ideas in thermal ecology. This includes (1) potentially groundbreaking advances the field of sex determination that will fundamentally change our understanding of TSD; (2) leveraging over 70 years of field data to test how warming is impacting vital rates in long-lived vertebrates; and (3) using thermal performance theory to re-imagine how a species lifestyles affect extinction probability under climate change. These common themes are tackled using diverse approaches and incredible datasets, conducive to a world-class training environment for HQP in my group, and productive careers in the sciences.