Prospects for Renewable Energy in a Turbulent World: Canada as a Potential Clean Energy Super Power

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Alberta (AB) oil is considered dirty because it is extracted using steam created by burning natural gas. I address cleaner extraction by building on an AB model that I previously used to examine the penetration of intermittent renewable energy into electricity grids. I propose to extend my earlier NSERC-funded research by constructing a British Columbia (BC) grid model that includes operation of the major hydroelectric dams. The BC and AB grid models will be combined to explore the potential climate and economic benefits of using BC reservoirs for passive and active (pumped-hydro) storage of wind and solar electricity generated in AB. The combined, integrated grid (CIG) model will then be used to examine the potential consequences of drought (reduced river runoff) and enhanced warming (increased flows from faster glacier melt). The CIG model will be calibrated using positive mathematical programming-a technique developed in the operations research literature. Yet, it is important to recognize that the CIG model is foremost a policy model meant to guide decision makers. This proposal thus extends my previous research program in three important ways. (1) It develops an AB-BC CIG model, which is then (2) extended to include stronger interties to the U.S., especially California (CAL). The latter requires development of a simple grid model for the U.S. that provides information for determining expected demand for AB-BC electricity under various U.S. and CAL climate policy scenarios. The model can then be used to determine the extent to which BC and AB can export carbon-free energy to CAL. To extend the AB-BC CIG model would require greater details relating to current and future transmission interties throughout western Canada and into CAL, which would necessitate a great deal of data collection and programming in an Excel-R-GAMS software environment. (3) There is great potential to deploy Gen IV nuclear reactors in northern AB/Saskatchewan using uranium from local mines. Nuclear power can be used to extract petroleum from the oilsands. Uranium can be processed and recycled until the final waste is returned to the mines from which it came. This would facilitate production of oil in situ using a carbon-free technology, putting Alberta's dirty oil on an equal environmental footing as conventional oil. The availability of nuclear power could potentially provide an impetus to refine oil into various products in western Canada. Power could also be sold to CAL, which will be investigated using the extended CIG model. The investments needed to export carbon-free electricity will bolster Canada's lagging economy, boost economic development in northern Canada, and provide high-quality jobs. Energy exports will strengthen the waning dollar, reducing the costs of purchasing investment goods abroad. Investments in nuclear technology can incentivize energy R&D, providing Canada an opportunity to be a global leader in several areas of clean energy technology.