Predicting impacts of cumulative threats to inform conservation decisions under global change

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Globally, species and ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented pressure from land use change, exploitation and climate change. Here in Canada, the fate of many species hangs in the balance. These species include iconic southern resident killer whales and sockeye salmon as well as hundreds of less known species. With >600 species listed under the Species at Risk Act and counting, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the impact of cumulative threats and use these predictions to develop conservation management and climate adaptation actions to mitigate these threats. This DG, will undertake the science needed to understand the cumulative and interacting impacts of multiple anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and will then use this information to develop and test effective and timely conservation management and climate adaptation actions. The Coastal Douglas Fir (CDF) bioclimatic zone in British Columbia is a model system to examine cumulative impacts. It is an endangered but extraordinarily diverse region that has been rapidly converted to human use (>60%) and retains 250 years), and <10% of Garry oak ecosystems. The diversity of species and number of Species at Risk within the region is among the highest in Canada and has been subject to a multitude of anthropogenic impacts from land use change to loss of top predators (cougars and wolves) and invasion by exotic species. Climate change is now exerting pressure across the entire region with little currently known about potential impacts on species and ecosystems or how climate change will interact with other threatening processes. This DG fills a critical knowledge gap and will discover the mechanisms underpinning species vulnerability to climate change, role of fire in maintaining ecosystem resilience, and the impact of trophic cascades resulting from the loss of top predators. This research program is built on a combination of innovative field experiments and leading-edge ecological modeling and statistical techniques. I will train a large team of HQP in these methods and will continue my track record of providing HQP with sought after skills for their careers in conservation science including problem formation, critical thinking, and exceptional analytical and communication skills. It will advance our understanding of cumulative effects and multiple pressures and contribute to building innovative conservation decision science tools to recover species and ecosystem under global change. Finally, this research places Canada at the leading edge of knowledge and intellectual capacity to develop and apply conservation management and climate adaptation actions to ensure the resilience of our species and ecosystems for generations to come.