An integrative framework to predict the presence of aquatic species-at-risk.

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When any human activity that may alter an aquatic environment is proposed, e.g. bridge construction, pipeline crossings, dredging, culvert installations, Fisheries and Oceans Canada requires the proponent to minimize and mitigate impacts for all fish and molluscs, with added emphasis for the care of any species at risk (SAR) animals within the zone of potential impact, e.g., the area within the construction footprint. The New Brunswick Department of Transportation and Infrastructure (DTI) is partnering with researchers from the Canadian Rivers Institute (CRI) at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) to develop a science-based risk assessment framework to establish the presence/absence of SAR aquatic species. The expected research outputs include using environmental DNA (eDNA) as a tool to map the spatial extent of SAR individuals, developing effective freshwater mussel survey methodologies at the microhabitat scale, mapping the connectivity of freshwater systems in NB using LiDAR, and a probabilistic model for the determination of risk to SAR across NB. This framework would allow for rapid confirmation of the presence of SAR within any proposed project's freshwater habitat, and could streamline the permitting process, concentrating the focus on conserving and protecting areas where SAR biota require the most attention, rather than defaulting to protection and unnecessary effort when SAR are absent. Beyond the regulatory and operational application, the outputs have significant implications for conservation and restoration as mapping of suitable SAR habitat will directly aid in prioritizing SAR habitat restoration, i.e., informing where to invest habitat restoration efforts with new unrealized restoration areas can be prioritized. This innovative research approach will have broad applications arising from an operational need (via NB DTI), while increasing the science-based decision making capacity within NB DTI and advancing current approaches to SAR freshwater surveys.