Spatial and Non-Spatial Timber Market Models and Game Theoretic Models of Sustainable Forest Management

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Canada is playing a leading role in forest management transitioning from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to sustainable forest management (SFM). In SFM, other ecosystem services, such as biodiversity, are as important as timber and requires the incorporation of stakeholders' values. In Ontario, two important changes have occurred. First, the establishment of a Local Citizens Committee (LCC), to assist the author of forest management plan in its preparation and implementation, has become a statutory requirement. Second, the province is making serious efforts to have forest co-management arrangements with First Nations peoples. In addition, due to emerging international trade regimes, Canada is exploring new timber markets beyond the traditional partner. Hence, for sound conceptual and theoretical foundations of SFM, there is urgent need to develop: (i) a full understanding of global timber markets; (ii) forest management models that incorporate interactions among different stakeholders, such as LCC members; and (iii) evolutionary models to analyze the dynamics of preferences and interactions between different stakeholders. In this program, we will develop three types of models. First, we will develop non-spatial and spatial models for timber markets in China. The organization of timber auctions in China is different compared to North America and therefore it is critical to understand and analyze timber auctions of China for establishing the timber-trade regime with China. Second, we will model the participation of LCC members in forest management planning in the context of their uncertain property rights. We will develop four models for different groups of LCC members - members with commercial, non-commercial such as recreation, and broader environmental interests, and local governments. We will develop a three-stage two-player game theoretic model for each group. In the first stage, the plan author selects harvesting areas over the planning period. In the second stage, the plan author and the LCC members bargain over a mutually agreed plan with endogenous bargaining positions. We will model that the reservation utilities of members depend on the outcome of a third-stage game where each player may attempt to get de facto property rights. Third, we will develop game-theoretic models that will incorporate the evolution of preferences. These models will be for co-management agreements, between First Nations (FNs) and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), FNs and forest industry, and FNs, forest industry, and MNR. We will use all models' results to make policy and forest management related recommendations. Three Ph.D., 3 M. Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 11 refereed papers and 6 policy/ management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. Three user workshops will be organized. The program will make important conceptual, theoretical, and applied contributions to the SFM paradigm.