Bifurcation and Game Theoretic Models for Sustainable Forest Management

在过去的二十年里，森林经营已经从持续收获木材经营（SYTM）转变为森林生态系统经营，即可持续森林经营（SFM）。在SYTM中，森林经营模型是基于单一稳态（或平衡）的概念，这是木材生产过程中凸性和负反馈假设的结果。可持续森林管理决策的建模必须基于真实的和复杂的森林生态系统过程。同样，可持续森林管理要求共同管理，而不是由国家/私营机构管理，以纳入不同利益攸关方的森林价值观。因此，森林管理的成功过渡到可持续森林管理，迫切需要开发新的森林管理模型和博弈论模型来分析森林共同管理中的合作伙伴之间的相互作用。在该计划中，将为以软木为主和以硬木为主的混合木北方森林开发森林管理模型，其中纳入不同树种之间以及树木和动物物种之间的相互作用;以及枫树、枫树和山毛榉为主的硬木森林。五大湖圣劳伦斯地区。这些模型的主要特点是纳入了凹凸增长函数和多重平衡。将在这些模型的基础上提出可持续森林管理规则。此外，将开发三个进化博弈理论模型，以分析在可能的共同管理的情况下，自然资源部（MNR）和第一民族社区（FNC），林业和FNC之间的条件，和MNR，林业和FNC，根据北方北方倡议。博弈理论模型的结果将被用来提出共同管理协议的基本特征。三个博士，3名硕士，培训本科生3名，发表学术论文15篇，管理简报3篇，会议报告14篇。 该计划将扩大森林管理的理论界限，并为森林管理人员制定可持续森林管理规则和共同管理协议提供指导。

In the last two decades, forest management has been transforming from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to forest ecosystem management known as sustainable forest management (SFM). In the SYTM, forest management modeling was based on the concept of a single steady state (or equilibrium), an outcome of the assumptions of convexity and negative feedbacks in timber production process. The modeling for SFM decisions has to be based on real and complex forest ecosystem processes. Similarly, SFM requires co-management, rather than a management by state/private agencies, to incorporate forest values of different stakeholders. Hence, for the successful transition of forest management to SFM, there is urgent need to develop new forest management models and game theoretic models to analyze interactions between partners in forest co-management. In this program, forest management models, incorporating interactions between different tree species and between tree and animal species, will be developed for softwood-dominated and hardwood-dominated mixedwood boreal forests; and maple, and maple and beech dominated hardwood forests of the Great Lakes St Lawrence region. The main features of these models will be the incorporation of convex-concave growth functions and multiple equilibriums. SFM rules will be suggested on the basis of these models. In addition, three evolutionary game theoretical models will be developed to analyze the conditions under possible co-management situations, between Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and First Nation Communities (FNCs), forest industry and FNCs, and the MNR, forest industry, and FNCs, under the Northern Boreal Initiative. The results of game theoretical models will be used to suggest basic features of co-management agreements. Three Ph.D., 3 M.Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 15 refereed papers and 3 management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. The program will extend theoretical boundaries of forest management and provide guidance to forest managers in developing SFM rules and co-management agreements.