Bifurcation and Game Theoretic Models for Sustainable Forest Management

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In the last two decades, forest management has been transforming from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to forest ecosystem management known as sustainable forest management (SFM). In the SYTM, forest management modeling was based on the concept of a single steady state (or equilibrium), an outcome of the assumptions of convexity and negative feedbacks in timber production process. The modeling for SFM decisions has to be based on real and complex forest ecosystem processes. Similarly, SFM requires co-management, rather than a management by state/private agencies, to incorporate forest values of different stakeholders. Hence, for the successful transition of forest management to SFM, there is urgent need to develop new forest management models and game theoretic models to analyze interactions between partners in forest co-management. In this program, forest management models, incorporating interactions between different tree species and between tree and animal species, will be developed for softwood-dominated and hardwood-dominated mixedwood boreal forests; and maple, and maple and beech dominated hardwood forests of the Great Lakes St Lawrence region. The main features of these models will be the incorporation of convex-concave growth functions and multiple equilibriums. SFM rules will be suggested on the basis of these models. In addition, three evolutionary game theoretical models will be developed to analyze the conditions under possible co-management situations, between Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and First Nation Communities (FNCs), forest industry and FNCs, and the MNR, forest industry, and FNCs, under the Northern Boreal Initiative. The results of game theoretical models will be used to suggest basic features of co-management agreements. Three Ph.D., 3 M.Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 15 refereed papers and 3 management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. The program will extend theoretical boundaries of forest management and provide guidance to forest managers in developing SFM rules and co-management agreements.