Towards resilient rural groundwater systems in a climate emergency

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Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. Future changes in precipitation, temperature and land use will influence the water balance, affecting groundwater quantity and quality. Thus, we need to understand how we can adapt water use and management practices to foster more resilient groundwater systems to ensure water supply sustainability and to address other related critical issues such as food security in Canada. My overarching goal is to develop data-informed adaptation strategies and approaches for groundwater system resiliency. In the next five years, I plan to develop climate change adaptation strategies applicable for rural groundwater systems for various user groups and communities (agricultural groundwater users, private and rural well users, and Indigenous communities). I will study potential adaptation strategies and approaches for groundwater management in the agricultural sector using nature-based solutions. For example, I will investigate: 1) how existing practices such as dugout ponds impact the water balance and groundwater systems, and their viability as an adaptation strategy during droughts; and 2) new ways to increase groundwater quantity such as managed aquifer recharge. Ultimately, I will develop a toolkit that farmers can use to learn strategies to protect their groundwater. I will study flooding of private and municipal wells used by rural citizens in southern Ontario. I will collect field data to develop a coupled groundwater-surface water model that can shed light on the mechanisms of well flooding, and inform the development of new ways to ensure water security. The model will also be used to develop a real-time flood forecasting framework that integrates groundwater processes. In partnership with Indigenous communities, I will use science-based approaches and Indigenous knowledge to develop methodologies for community-based water monitoring programs that assess impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. Using the data collected, I will develop frameworks to assess vulnerability of groundwater and groundwater-surface water interacting systems to climate change. Developing adaptation strategies in a groundwater context is understudied, and thus this research is poised to make great impact. The results will improve water security, human and ecosystem health, and will reduce water vulnerability and risk of climate change threats. The economic benefits of developing and adopting climate change adaptation strategies is immense. It has recently been estimated that every dollar invested in adaptation in Canada generates about $5 to $6 in benefits. Nine trainees at the doctoral, Master's and undergraduate levels (as well as two community-based researchers in Indigenous communities), will gain valuable, state of the science training in this field, and poise them to be leaders in understanding and adapting to climate change impacts on groundwater resources.