Predicting Methane Emissions from Alberta Oil Sands Territories Using a Holistic Model and Monitoring System

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the oil sector in Alberta total about 70 Mt annually, with no limit in place. Much of these emissions derive from methane biogenesis, which is done by bacteria that live in oil sands tailings ponds and end-pit lakes. Because of the importance of methanogenic bacteria in this matter, accurate predictions of GHG emissions derived from oil sands tailings can aid in estimating specific emissions limits to reduce the effects of climate change. Also, methane produced by these bacteria can harm the animals living in end-pit lakes and the surrounding areas, foiling land reclamation strategies. We therefore intend to determine the holistic effects of methanogens on the areas they are found in. We will build mathematical models predicting GHG emissions by methanogens as a function of many different ecological and meteorological covariates. These models will feature both machine learning and mechanistic techniques, and hence combine high predictive power with analyzability and clear indications of causality. The models will be constructed by utilizing the results of lab experiments where methanogen activity will be observed in a controlled setting under different simulated environmental conditions. They will be fit using large amounts of field data from an array of air quality sensors, provided by our partners in the South African Consortium of Air Quality Monitoring, that we will deploy in and around tailings ponds and end-pit lakes. The data from these sensors will be analyzed in real time using AI methods. We will also perform lab experiments investigating the effects of methane on the health and behaviour of model organisms, as well as those of bitumen (which end-pit lake species encounter via indirect effects of methanogen activity). We will disseminate our findings by creating an app enabling stakeholders to estimate emissions by methanogens in any given location, and our partners in Alberta Environment and Protected Areas will use our results to shape policy on oil sands land reclamation and natural resource stewardship. Our project will facilitate improvements in Alberta's oil sands infrastructure and better air quality provincewide.