The effect of heterogeniety on host-pathogen, plant-herbivore and disease-transmission systems

异质性对宿主-病原体、植物-食草动物和疾病传播系统的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05760
• 负责人: Watmough, James
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758889
• 关键词: effect; heterogeniety; host; pathogen; plant

The study of the dynamics of host-pathogen systems, such as the spread of an infectious disease, or an outbreak of an agricultural pest, is a central part of many ecological and social applications. Such systems often show a threshold for pathogen persistence or disease-outbreak. Mathematically similar systems arise when studying co-existence of several species or of traits within a population. In a structured population, where the structure might be due to dependence of behaviours affecting transmission on age, location, health, or vaccination status, these thresholds depend on the details of the structure. If this structure is static, then we can consider a single threshold for pathogen persistence. Of more interest is the case where the structure is dynamic, either changing from a sudden disturbance, or by gradual changes accumulating over time. This changing population structure can lead to opportunities for pathogens to invade, and conversely, we may be interested in control of the pathogen by changing the population structure. I propose to study a variety of applications involving host-pathogen systems within a changing population structure and to work towards a general theory of such systems. We will develop, analyze and test models for several specific applications. Ongoing research projects include biological invasions and control strategies for infectious diseases. Tunicates are spreading throughout Prince Edward Island, Canada, and this spread is influenced by the spatial pattern of suitable substrate, including mussel leases and docks. Models and observations suggest that the natural spread of tunicates can be controlled by careful monitoring and regular cleaning of certain key potential settlement areas. Similarly, the spread rate of the Emerald Ash Borer depends on the spatial arrangement and age of host trees. Understanding this dependence by developing and validating a model for host selection will lead to interventions which slow the insect's spread. More generally, the spatial structure of a host population or habitat will influence the spread rate of a pathogen or pest.

对宿主-病原体系统动力学的研究，例如传染病的传播或农业害虫的爆发，是许多生态和社会应用的核心部分。 此类系统通常显示病原体持续存在或疾病爆发的阈值。 当研究种群内多个物种或性状的共存时，会出现数学上类似的系统。 在结构化人群中，结构可能是由于影响传播的行为对年龄、地点、健康状况或疫苗接种状态的依赖而导致的，这些阈值取决于结构的细节。 如果这个结构是静态的，那么我们可以考虑病原体持久性的单一阈值。 更有趣的是结构是动态的，要么因突然的扰动而变化，要么随着时间的推移逐渐积累变化。 这种不断变化的种群结构可能会导致病原体入侵的机会，相反，我们可能有兴趣通过改变种群结构来控制病原体。 我建议在不断变化的群体结构中研究涉及宿主病原体系统的各种应用，并致力于建立此类系统的一般理论。 我们将为几个特定应用开发、分析和测试模型。 正在进行的研究项目包括生物入侵和传染病控制策略。 被囊类动物在加拿大爱德华王子岛广泛传播，这种传播受到合适基质空间格局的影响，包括贻贝租赁区和码头。 模型和观察表明，可以通过仔细监测和定期清理某些关键的潜在定居区域来控制被囊类动物的自然传播。 同样，白蜡螟的传播速度取决于寄主树的空间排列和树龄。 通过开发和验证宿主选择模型来了解这种依赖性将导致减缓昆虫传播的干预措施。更一般地说，宿主种群或栖息地的空间结构将影响病原体或害虫的传播速度。