The effect of heterogeniety on host-pathogen, plant-herbivore and disease-transmission systems

异质性对宿主-病原体、植物-食草动物和疾病传播系统的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-05760
• 负责人: Watmough, James
• 金额: $ 1.75万
• 依托单位: University of New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758889
• 关键词: effect; heterogeniety; host; pathogen; plant

The study of the dynamics of host-pathogen systems, such as the spread of an infectious disease, or an outbreak of an agricultural pest, is a central part of many ecological and social applications. Such systems often show a threshold for pathogen persistence or disease-outbreak. Mathematically similar systems arise when studying co-existence of several species or of traits within a population. In a structured population, where the structure might be due to dependence of behaviours affecting transmission on age, location, health, or vaccination status, these thresholds depend on the details of the structure. If this structure is static, then we can consider a single threshold for pathogen persistence. Of more interest is the case where the structure is dynamic, either changing from a sudden disturbance, or by gradual changes accumulating over time. This changing population structure can lead to opportunities for pathogens to invade, and conversely, we may be interested in control of the pathogen by changing the population structure. I propose to study a variety of applications involving host-pathogen systems within a changing population structure and to work towards a general theory of such systems. We will develop, analyze and test models for several specific applications. Ongoing research projects include biological invasions and control strategies for infectious diseases. Tunicates are spreading throughout Prince Edward Island, Canada, and this spread is influenced by the spatial pattern of suitable substrate, including mussel leases and docks. Models and observations suggest that the natural spread of tunicates can be controlled by careful monitoring and regular cleaning of certain key potential settlement areas. Similarly, the spread rate of the Emerald Ash Borer depends on the spatial arrangement and age of host trees. Understanding this dependence by developing and validating a model for host selection will lead to interventions which slow the insect's spread. More generally, the spatial structure of a host population or habitat will influence the spread rate of a pathogen or pest.

宿主-病原体系统动力学的研究，例如传染病的传播或农业害虫的爆发，是许多生态和社会应用的核心部分。这样的系统通常显示出病原体持续存在或疾病爆发的阈值。数学上类似的系统出现在研究几个物种或一个种群内的特征共存时。在结构化人群中，结构可能是由于影响传播的行为依赖于年龄、地点、健康状况或疫苗接种状况，这些阈值取决于结构的细节。如果这个结构是静态的，那么我们可以考虑病原体持久性的单一阈值。更令人感兴趣的是结构是动态的情况，要么从突然的扰动中改变，要么随着时间的推移逐渐积累变化。这种变化的种群结构可能导致病原体入侵的机会，相反，我们可能对通过改变种群结构来控制病原体感兴趣。我建议在不断变化的种群结构中研究涉及宿主-病原体系统的各种应用，并努力建立这种系统的一般理论。我们将为几个特定的应用开发、分析和测试模型。正在进行的研究项目包括生物入侵和传染病控制战略。被囊动物正在加拿大爱德华王子岛扩散，这种扩散受到合适基质的空间格局的影响，包括贻贝租赁和码头。模型和观察表明，可以通过仔细监测和定期清理某些关键的潜在定居点来控制被囊动物的自然传播。同样，绿灰螟的传播速率取决于寄主树的空间排列和树龄。通过开发和验证寄主选择模型来了解这种依赖性将导致减缓昆虫传播的干预措施。更一般地说，宿主种群或栖息地的空间结构会影响病原体或害虫的传播速度。