A Framework for Model Development and Mathematical Evaluation of Vaccination

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Mathematical modelling has made key contributions to the design and analysis of vaccination programs. However, major gaps in our understanding of vaccination dynamics still remain, which require the development of new theoretical and computational methods that are informed by biological, epidemiological, and at-risk population characteristics. This research program will develop a mathematical framework to evaluate the impact of vaccination based on appropriate model structures. Such a framework is currently lacking, hindering the validation and comparison of outcomes produced by different modelling techniques. Current models of vaccination often assume that the risk of disease in a population is stable over time. However, this is not the case with communicable diseases (e.g., influenza, pertussis), which has important social and economic implications. Furthermore, intermittent or time specific events (e.g., environmental factors or seasonality) could acutely increase or decrease the risk of disease. Moreover, the effect of vaccination depends on two distinguishable vaccine properties of efficacy (protection at the individual level) and effectiveness (reduction of disease incidence in the population). These properties are often quantified in dynamic models using the same parameter. Considering these factors, it is therefore imperative to develop a general mathematical framework to study emerging issues in vaccination dynamics, and provide a better understanding of the transient and lasting effects of vaccination. We propose to construct a mathematical framework based on characteristics of two major classes of viral and bacterial diseases. For each class, essential parameters, model structures, and theoretical methods will be studied. The effect of vaccination will be investigated based on attributes that affect not only disease dynamics but also policy and program delivery. These include the percentage of the population to be vaccinated, the possibility of vaccine failure, timelines of vaccination, and number of vaccine doses. We will conduct comparative analyses of vaccination models to identify key elements of the evaluation framework. This program will lead to significant outcomes. First and foremost, it creates a mathematical and computational framework that will guide future efforts in disease modelling and evaluation of interventions. Furthermore, as new technologies for vaccine production emerge, important parameters and underlying assumptions may be altered, and will therefore need to be considered in assessing vaccination programs. Beyond its scientific contributions, this research will directly address the needs of end-users in decision-making. This program will offer exceptional training opportunities for highly qualified personnel to acquire critical expertise and leadership skills, and contribute to the socioeconomic status of Canada.