A Framework for Model Development and Mathematical Evaluation of Vaccination

疫苗接种模型开发和数学评估框架

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-05906
• 负责人: Moghadas, Seyed
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: York University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=713943
• 关键词: Framework; Model; Development; Mathematical; Evaluation

Mathematical modelling has made key contributions to the design and analysis of vaccination programs. However, major gaps in our understanding of vaccination dynamics still remain, which require the development of new theoretical and computational methods that are informed by biological, epidemiological, and at-risk population characteristics. This research program will develop a mathematical framework to evaluate the impact of vaccination based on appropriate model structures. Such a framework is currently lacking, hindering the validation and comparison of outcomes produced by different modelling techniques. Current models of vaccination often assume that the risk of disease in a population is stable over time. However, this is not the case with communicable diseases (e.g., influenza, pertussis), which has important social and economic implications. Furthermore, intermittent or time specific events (e.g., environmental factors or seasonality) could acutely increase or decrease the risk of disease. Moreover, the effect of vaccination depends on two distinguishable vaccine properties of efficacy (protection at the individual level) and effectiveness (reduction of disease incidence in the population). These properties are often quantified in dynamic models using the same parameter. Considering these factors, it is therefore imperative to develop a general mathematical framework to study emerging issues in vaccination dynamics, and provide a better understanding of the transient and lasting effects of vaccination. We propose to construct a mathematical framework based on characteristics of two major classes of viral and bacterial diseases. For each class, essential parameters, model structures, and theoretical methods will be studied. The effect of vaccination will be investigated based on attributes that affect not only disease dynamics but also policy and program delivery. These include the percentage of the population to be vaccinated, the possibility of vaccine failure, timelines of vaccination, and number of vaccine doses. We will conduct comparative analyses of vaccination models to identify key elements of the evaluation framework. This program will lead to significant outcomes. First and foremost, it creates a mathematical and computational framework that will guide future efforts in disease modelling and evaluation of interventions. Furthermore, as new technologies for vaccine production emerge, important parameters and underlying assumptions may be altered, and will therefore need to be considered in assessing vaccination programs. Beyond its scientific contributions, this research will directly address the needs of end-users in decision-making. This program will offer exceptional training opportunities for highly qualified personnel to acquire critical expertise and leadership skills, and contribute to the socioeconomic status of Canada.

数学建模为疫苗接种计划的设计和分析做出了重要贡献。然而，我们对疫苗接种动态的理解仍然存在重大差距，这需要开发新的理论和计算方法，以了解生物学，流行病学和高危人群特征。该研究计划将开发一个数学框架，以评估基于适当的模型结构的疫苗接种的影响。目前缺乏这样一个框架，妨碍了对不同建模技术产生的结果进行验证和比较。 目前的疫苗接种模型通常假设人群中的疾病风险随时间推移而稳定。然而，传染病的情况并非如此（例如，流感、百日咳），这具有重要的社会和经济影响。此外，间歇性或时间特定事件（例如，环境因素或季节性）可能会急剧增加或减少疾病的风险。此外，疫苗接种的效果取决于两个可区分的疫苗特性，即效力（在个体水平上的保护）和有效性（降低人群中的疾病发病率）。这些属性通常在动态模型中使用相同的参数进行量化。考虑到这些因素，因此必须开发一个通用的数学框架来研究疫苗接种动态中出现的问题，并更好地了解疫苗接种的短暂和持久影响。 我们建议构建一个数学框架的基础上的两个主要类别的病毒和细菌性疾病的特点。对于每一类，基本参数，模型结构和理论方法将进行研究。疫苗接种的效果将根据不仅影响疾病动态，而且影响政策和方案交付的属性进行调查。这些因素包括接种人口的百分比、疫苗失败的可能性、疫苗接种的时间表和疫苗剂量。我们将对疫苗接种模式进行比较分析，以确定评估框架的关键要素。 该计划将产生重大成果。首先，它创建了一个数学和计算框架，将指导未来的疾病建模和干预措施评估工作。此外，随着疫苗生产新技术的出现，重要参数和基本假设可能会发生变化，因此在评估疫苗接种计划时需要加以考虑。除了其科学贡献，这项研究将直接解决最终用户在决策方面的需求。该计划将为高素质的人才提供特殊的培训机会，以获得关键的专业知识和领导技能，并为加拿大的社会经济地位做出贡献。