Improving estimates of ocean productivity and carbon sequestration through a combination of autonomous observation- and model-based approaches

海洋正在迅速变暖，并变得更加分层，这阻碍了对维持海面光合作用初级生产至关重要的溶解营养物质的垂直交换。初级生产支持海洋食物网，并作为将二氧化碳封存在海洋内部的途径，在调节地球气候方面发挥着重要作用。准确量化海洋初级生产力和碳固存及其对气候变暖的反应是紧迫的科学挑战，但由于生物地球化学观测的相对稀少而受到阻碍。来自科考船的测量，虽然允许最广泛的直接测量套件，但由于所需的成本和工作量，仅限于几个点的测量。卫星可以提供高空间分辨率的天气全球覆盖，但观察到的唯一生物地球化学性质是表面叶绿素。由此产生的差距阻碍了我们充分认识海洋生物地球化学变化、理解潜在过程以及测试和改进模型的能力。自主平台和微型生物地球化学传感器最近的成熟为克服海洋长期存在的生物地球化学采样不足提供了机会，使我们能够通过卫星和船只补充传统的观测手段来观察变化。自主平台可以在全球范围内以经济高效的方式在3维空间收集高度分辨率的、公正的和持续的许多基本生物地球化学海洋属性的测量。利用迅速扩展的自主海洋观测网络，特别是生物地球化学(BGC)ARGO计划，该研究计划的目标是1)开发和应用新的方法来估计海洋生产力和自主观测的碳输出，2)使用新出现的数据严格测试和改进海洋生物地球化学模型，以提高模型能力，以及3)开发和应用统计方法来混合自主生物地球化学观测和模型，以获得对不断变化的海洋状态的最佳估计。成功展示拟议的海洋生产力和碳输出估算方法将从根本上改变观察这些过程的国际努力，将加强持续将带有BGC传感器的自主平台纳入全球海洋观测系统的理由，并将为能够在未来几十年探测气候引起的变化奠定基础。对生物地球化学模型进行严格和系统的评估将减少全球气候预测中的不确定性。提供严格限制的数据同化模式产品将使北大西洋西北地区的各种利益攸关方直接受益。所有这些成果对于合理缓解气候变化的影响和实现净零碳的有效步骤都是非常宝贵的。

The ocean is rapidly warming and becoming more stratified, which inhibits the vertical exchange of dissolved nutrients essential for maintaining photosynthetic primary production at the sea surface. Primary production supports the marine food web and plays a major role in regulating Earth's climate as a pathway for sequestering CO2 in the ocean's interior. Accurate quantification of ocean primary production and carbon sequestration, and their response to a warming climate are urgent scientific challenges but are hindered by the relative sparsity of biogeochemical observations. Measurements from research ships, while allowing for the broadest suite of direct measurements, are limited to a few point measurements due to the cost and effort required. Satellites can provide synoptic global coverage at high spatial resolution, but the only biogeochemical property observed is surface chlorophyll. The resulting gaps are hampering our ability to fully recognize changes in ocean biogeochemistry, to understand the underlying processes, and to test and improve models. The recent maturation of autonomous platforms and miniaturized biogeochemical sensors provides an opportunity to overcome the long-standing biogeochemical undersampling of the ocean, enabling us to observe changes by complementing traditional means of observation via satellites and ships. Autonomous platforms allow collection of highly resolved, unbiased, and sustained measurements of many essential biogeochemical ocean properties on the global scale in 3-dimensional space and in a cost-effective manner. Taking advantage of rapidly expanding autonomous ocean observation networks, in particular the biogeochemical (BGC) Argo program, the objectives of this research program are to 1) develop and apply new approaches for estimating ocean productivity and carbon export from autonomous observations, 2) rigorously test and refine ocean biogeochemical models using the newly emerging data to improve model capabilities, and 3) develop and apply statistical methods for blending autonomous biogeochemical observations and models to obtain the best possible estimates of the changing ocean state. A successful demonstration of the proposed approaches for estimating ocean productivity and carbon export will fundamentally transform international efforts to observe these processes, will strengthen the case for a sustained inclusion of autonomous platforms with BGC sensors in the global ocean observing system, and will lay the groundwork for enabling detection of climate-induced changes in the coming decades. A rigorous and systematic assessment of biogeochemical models will reduce uncertainties in global climate projections. Provision of well-constrained data-assimilative model products will directly benefit a variety of stakeholders in the northwest North Atlantic region. All of these outcomes are invaluable for sound mitigation of climate change impacts and effective steps toward net-zero carbon.