Sustainable Transport Safety (SMARTer Growth Systems Planning): Tools to Proactively Move Toward Zero Deaths & Zero Emissions Transport

可持续运输安全（更智能的增长系统规划）：主动实现零死亡的工具

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03056
• 负责人: Lovegrove, Gordon
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=761769
• 关键词: Sustainable; Transport; Safety; SMARTer; Growth

As designers, builders, and managers of community land use and transportation infrastructure systems, engineers are legally and ethically bound to hold paramount the protection of our environment, and safety of our public. In 2018, over 1,900 people were killed in traffic crashes on Canadians roads and another 140,000 injured; and, economic impacts of health care, lost productivity, and insurance claims total over 2% of GDP. Compounding this, the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) confirms that climate change has been costing Canadians over $300 million in damages per year, and 2% of GDP since 2010. Conversely, Dutch researchers have shown that using a systems-based, SMARTer Growth infrastructure investment approach yields an over 4:1 return in terms of fewer pedestrian/cyclist (AT) deaths, and property damage over 10 years. This builds on 2001 UK research by Stern that forecast a 2:1 return on investments to combat climate change. The IBC analysis suggests an even greater yield is possible if Canadian policy and infrastructure investment efforts are successful in improving road safety and reducing GHG emissions.  The link to both safer Canadian roads and reduced GHG emissions lies in reducing how much we drive in Canada, where transport has been linked to 30% of our GHG emissions, and, where driver error has been associated with 96% of crashes.  Shifting how people travel away from driving and toward walking, biking, and busing is a complex problem, and links to our development patterns as well as our investments in transport choices, demanding that a system-based approach be taken. Recognizing that a system-based approach is needed to entice mode shift, I train my HQP in multi-scale research methods to address several knowledge gaps in safety and GHG emissions, an area of research I term SMARTer Growth (SG) systems planning.  Although progress has been made, empirical tools still lack enough sensitivity to provide reliable estimates at each scale of system planning, which handicaps informed decision-making and paralyzes progress. My long-term vision is to increase Canada's evidence-based understanding of the transport-related road safety and GHG impacts of infrastructure investment and policy decisions, in order to promote SG systems planning in support of Canadian targets and UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). Progress towards this long-term vision builds on my recent research, and will be reached through three short-term goals:  Goal 1. Neighborhood Scale - Reliable 24 hour AT estimates linked to neighborhood traits. Goal 2. Intersection Scale -Road crossing traits linked with reliable estimates of user preferences Goal 3. Regional Scale - Improved rail monitoring & data analytics to reliably estimate how regional zero-emission (ZE) passenger rail (hydrail) impacts mode choice, safety, and GHG emissions. My proposed 2022-2026 Short Term Goals & Work Plan sets out 14 knowledge gaps that will be tackled by 20 new HQP.

作为社区土地使用和交通基础设施系统的设计者、建设者和管理者，工程师在法律和道德上都有义务将保护我们的环境和公众的安全放在首位。2018年，加拿大道路交通事故造成1900多人死亡，14万人受伤；医疗保健、生产力损失和保险索赔对经济的影响超过国内生产总值的2%。雪上加霜的是，加拿大保险局(IBC)证实，自2010年以来，气候变化每年给加拿大人造成的损失超过3亿美元，占GDP的2%。相反，荷兰研究人员表明，使用基于系统的、更智能的增长基础设施投资方法，在10年内减少行人/骑自行车(AT)死亡和财产损失方面的回报超过4：1。这是基于斯特恩2001年在英国进行的一项研究，该研究预测，抗击气候变化的投资回报率为2：1。IBC的分析表明，如果加拿大的政策和基础设施投资努力在改善道路安全和减少温室气体排放方面取得成功，那么更大的收益是可能的。加拿大道路安全和温室气体排放减少的联系在于减少我们在加拿大开车的量，在加拿大，交通工具与我们30%的温室气体排放有关，在加拿大，司机失误与96%的车祸有关。转变人们的出行方式是一个复杂的问题，与我们的发展模式以及我们在交通选择方面的投资有关，这要求采取基于系统的方法。认识到需要一种基于系统的方法来吸引模式转变，我对我的HQP进行了多尺度研究方法的培训，以解决安全和温室气体排放方面的几个知识缺口，这是我称之为更智能增长(SG)系统规划的研究领域。尽管已经取得了进展，但经验工具仍然缺乏足够的灵敏度，无法在系统规划的每个尺度上提供可靠的估计，这阻碍了知情的决策制定，并使进展陷入瘫痪。我的长期愿景是增加加拿大对基础设施投资和政策决策对交通相关道路安全和温室气体影响的循证理解，以促进SG系统规划，以支持加拿大的目标和联合国可持续发展目标(UN SDGs)。这一长期愿景的进展建立在我最近的研究基础上，并将通过三个短期目标来实现：目标1.邻里尺度-与邻里特征相关的可靠的24小时AT估计。目标2.交叉口规模--道路交叉特征与用户偏好的可靠估计相联系目标3.区域规模--改进的铁路监测和数据分析，以可靠地估计区域零排放客运铁路(HELIL)如何影响模式选择、安全性和温室气体排放。我提出的2022-2026年短期目标和工作计划列出了14个知识差距，将由20个新的HQP来解决。