Convective Rainfall Variability in Climate Models

气候模型中的对流降雨变化

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2018-04048
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    加拿大
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助国家:
    加拿大
  • 起止时间:
    2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Climate models are used to predict changes to increases in greenhouse gases, for seasonal weather forecasting, understanding past climate change, and as a platform for improving weather forecast models. Their greatest weaknesses are associated with processes involving clouds that they cannot resolve. Most climate models divide the atmosphere into boxes of roughly 100 km in the horizontal and 1 km in the vertical. These boxes are too large to capture motions within most clouds. Convective clouds such as thunderstorms produce most of the rain in the tropics and in mid-latitudes during summer. Though large in the upper troposphere, they are fed by updrafts whose diameters are less than a few kilometers. As a result, the horizontal and vertical motions of these clouds are not resolved by climate models. Instead, climate models have used what are called parameterizations. Parameterizations are necessary because a climate model would fail or become unphysical in their absence. However, the way that parameterizations represent small scale processes such as clouds is incomplete. The problem of how to include convective clouds in climate models has continued since the first climate models fifty years ago. Although it will never be fully solved, progressively better approaches are evolving as computer models improve and more observations of convective clouds become available. The focus of my research program is on the use of convective organization variables in convective parameterizations. This involves taking some aspect of the resolved flow of the climate model, such as the upward motion in the lower troposphere, and using this variable to calculate how much convective rain is produced in a column. It is a short cut which exploits known observed relationships between larger scale motion and convective rainfall. This approach helps simulate how organized rainfall patterns propagate. This research has implications for our ability to address some of the most important challenges in climate modelling. These includes changes in the formation and intensification of hurricanes, the seasonal patterns of droughts and monsoons in the tropics, climate shifts associated with ENSO, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a large region of enhanced rainfall that moves eastward parallel to the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Improvements in our ability to forecast the MJO would result in significant improvements in midlatitude weather prediction.
气候模型用于预测温室气体增加的变化,季节性天气预报,了解过去的气候变化,并作为改进天气预报模型的平台。它们最大的弱点与涉及它们无法解决的云的流程有关。大多数气候模式将大气层分成水平方向约100公里、垂直方向约1公里的盒子。这些框太大,无法捕捉大多数云内的运动。对流云,如雷暴,在热带和中纬度地区的夏季产生了大部分的降雨。虽然在对流层上部很大,但它们是由直径小于几公里的上升气流供给的。因此,这些云的水平和垂直运动无法通过气候模式解决。相反,气候模型使用了所谓的参数化。参数化是必要的,因为如果没有参数化,气候模型就会失败或变得不符合实际。然而,参数化表示云等小尺度过程的方式是不完整的。如何将对流云纳入气候模式的问题自50年前第一个气候模式以来一直存在。虽然它永远不会完全解决,但随着计算机模型的改进和更多对流云观测的可用性,越来越好的方法正在发展。我的研究项目的重点是对流组织变量在对流参数化中的应用。这涉及到气候模式的某些方面,例如对流层低层的上升运动,并使用此变量来计算在一个柱中产生多少对流雨。这是一条捷径,利用已知的观测到的大尺度运动和对流降雨之间的关系。这种方法有助于模拟有组织的降雨模式如何传播。这项研究对我们解决气候建模中一些最重要挑战的能力具有影响。这些变化包括飓风的形成和加剧、热带地区干旱和季风的季节性模式、与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关的气候变化以及马登朱利安振荡。MJO是一个大的降雨增强区域,平行于太平洋赤道向东移动。我们预测MJO的能力的提高将导致中纬度天气预报的显着改善。

项目成果

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Folkins, Ian其他文献

Folkins, Ian的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Folkins, Ian', 18)}}的其他基金

Convective Rainfall Variability in Climate Models
气候模型中的对流降雨变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2018-04048
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Convective Rainfall Variability in Climate Models
气候模型中的对流降雨变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2018-04048
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Convective Rainfall Variability in Climate Models
气候模型中的对流降雨变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2018-04048
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Convective Rainfall Variability in Climate Models
气候模型中的对流降雨变化
  • 批准号:
    RGPIN-2018-04048
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Improving the Prediction of Tropical Precipitation using a new Convective Parameterization
使用新的对流参数化改进热带降水的预测
  • 批准号:
    155649-2012
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Improving the Prediction of Tropical Precipitation using a new Convective Parameterization
使用新的对流参数化改进热带降水的预测
  • 批准号:
    155649-2012
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Improving the Prediction of Tropical Precipitation using a new Convective Parameterization
使用新的对流参数化改进热带降水的预测
  • 批准号:
    155649-2012
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Improving the Prediction of Tropical Precipitation using a new Convective Parameterization
使用新的对流参数化改进热带降水的预测
  • 批准号:
    155649-2012
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Improving the Prediction of Tropical Precipitation using a new Convective Parameterization
使用新的对流参数化改进热带降水的预测
  • 批准号:
    155649-2012
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Development of a new parameterization of tropical convection
热带对流新参数化的发展
  • 批准号:
    155649-2007
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.82万
  • 项目类别:
    Discovery Grants Program - Individual

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