农村自杀问题是现阶段影响我国居民健康的重要公共卫生问题和社会问题。风险预警作为健康管理领域的重要手段在疾病的早发现、早诊断、早治疗中发挥了重要作用。目前，我国缺乏适合国情、效果较好的识别自杀高危个体的风险预警工具，在自杀防控方面的措施有限。本研究以“竞争风险理论”为指导，采用不依赖人群队列随访的全人群病例对照设计，综合运用流行病学、数理统计学、卫生管理学等理论与方法，建立农村自杀行为适宜性风险预警工具。通过文献复习法建立农村自杀行为危险因素集。利用“预期寿命危险因素累积标尺”收集研究对象的早期危险因素暴露情况，分析研究对象整个生命周期内危险因素累积效应。采用“原因别风险模型” 建立我国农村地区的自杀行为风险预警模型集。以“适宜性分级”原则为基础，通过专题小组讨论和统计模拟验证相结合的方法建立自杀适宜性风险预警工具。该研究对于有效筛查自杀高危个体，预防和控制农村地区自杀行为具有重要意义。

Rural suicide is an important social and public health problem in China. Risk evaluation is an important method for early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment of diseases in the health administration field. Nowadays, there is not a comprehensive risk evaluation tool about suicidal risk which conforms to Chinese reality. We can do few works about suicide prevention in China. In this study, the population-based case-control study design will be used to build a appropriate evaluation tool about suicidal risk. Some methods from epidemiology, mathematical statistics and health administration will combine in the research method. The literature review will be used to collect the risk factors about suicidal behavior. The accumulation scale plate of risk factors in life expectancy will be used to collect the early exposure of risk factors, and we will analyze the accumulation effect of these risk factors in the entire life expectancy. The cause-specific hazards model will be used to build the suicide risk early-warning model set. The focus group discussion and statistical simulation will be used to build the appropriate evaluation tool about suicidal risk. This study can give us a tool to screening the risk of suicide, and prevent suicidal behavior in rural China.