包虫病长期影响着人类健康和畜牧业发展，是我国西部农牧民因病致贫、因病返贫的重要原因。而宿主潜伏期、感染期和恢复期的时滞效应、季节变动引起的温度、湿度和降雨量的变化及种群固有的年龄、性别和地域的差异性等因素影响包虫病的传播已经成为传染病学家的重要共识，因此研究这些因素对包虫病传播的影响是当前包虫病防控的重要课题之一。本项目结合经典的传染病动力学模型和种群动力学模型，基于包虫病的传播机理，建立一系列具有时滞效应、季节变动和种群异质性的自治和非自治包虫病动力学模型，计算模型的基本再生数，利用微分方程、动力系统、分支理论和数值仿真等方法分析模型的局部和全局动力学性态，估计模型参数，预测疾病流行趋势，探索时滞效应、季节变动和种群异质性对包虫病传播和防控的影响，寻求预防和控制包虫病传播的综合防控策略。本项目旨在为包虫病的防控提供重要的参考依据的同时丰富和推动人畜共患病传播动力学的研究。

Echinococcosis has long influence human health and the development of animal husbandry. It is an important reason for farmers and herdsmen in western China to become poor due to illness. Epidemiologists have arrived at a consensus that the time delay effects of host latency, infection and recovery, changes in temperature, humidity, and rainfall caused by seasonal variations and the inherent differences in age, sex, and geography of a population affect the transmission dynamics of Echinococcosis. Therefore, to investigate the impact of these factors on the transmission of echinococcosis is one of the important subjects in prevention and control of echinococcosis. In this project, combined classical infectious disease dynamics model and population dynamics model, we will first formulate autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical model which links the time delay effect, seasonal variation and population heterogeneity based on the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis. Then we will calculate the basic reproduction number, analyze the local and global dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model by using the theory of differential equations, dynamical systems, bifurcation and numerical simulation methods and also estimate parameters of model to predict disease trends, to explore the effects of time delay, seasonal variation and population heterogeneity on the transmission and control of echinococcosis, and then to seek the comprehensive prevention and control strategy of echinococcosis. In all, this project aims to provide an important reference for the prevention and control of echinococcosis and to enrich and promote the study on the transmission dynamics of zoonosis.