人口老龄化背景下延迟退休政策精算设计及决策方法研究

为应对人口老龄化，延迟退休成为整个社会关注的焦点问题。本项目结合中国人口死亡率数据特点，构建基于数据差异的Lee-Carter-最小叉熵死亡率模型，制定动态生命表。进而，从“微观”（个人）角度，研究延迟退休对职工福利的影响程度和效用，职工对延迟退休的满意度，确定延迟退休区间；从“中观”（基本养老保险制度）角度，设计延迟退休政策下养老保险制度精算指标体系，建立养老保险基金缺口精算模型，据此构建延迟退休对缩减基金缺口的贡献率模型，确定延迟退休区间；从“宏观”（人口红利、经济增长、就业）角度，研究延迟退休对增加适龄劳动人口的贡献率模型，延迟退休对促进经济增长的贡献率模型，延迟退休对就业的影响效应，确定延迟退休区间。最后，综合“微观”、“中观”和“宏观”三方面因素，构建度量延迟退休效果的集结算子评价模型，研究最优延迟退休方案。通过该研究，以期为制定延迟退休政策提供科学决策方法和精算数据。

Delaying the retirement age has become a focus topic for tackling the population aging problem in China. We study the postponed retirement from the following aspects. First, combing with the feature of population mortality data in China, we will construct a Lee-Carter-minimization cross entropy with the difference of data, and design the dynamic life table. Then, from the ‘Microcosmic’ point of view (i.e., individual), we explore the effect on the employee benefits brought by delaying the retirement age, and calculate the employee satisfaction degree in the postponed retirement policy, and determine the retirement age interval. From the ‘middle-cosmic’ point of view (i.e., the basic pension insurance system), we design the actuarial index system for the basic pension insurance system in the context of the postponed retirement policy, and construct the actuarial model for the funding gap of the basic pension insurance, and further develop the postponed retirement contribution rate model for cutting down the funding gap of the basic pension insurance, and correspondingly provide the retirement age interval. From the ‘Macrocosmic’ point of view (i.e., demographic dividend, economic growth, employment), we construct the postponed retirement contribution rate models for increasing the working-age population, promoting economic growth, influencing the employment, respectively, and provide the retirement age interval. Finally, combining with the ‘Microcosmic’, ‘middle-cosmic’ and ‘Macrocosmic’ influential factors, we construct the aggregating operator evaluating model for measuring the effect of the postponed retirement, and provide the optimal scheme for postponing the retirement age. We hope that the above-mentioned work can provide a scientific decision-making approach and actuarial data for designing the postponed retirement policy.