老龄化背景下新农保可持续发展的精算研究

十七届五中全会公报提出，"十二五"期间着力保障和改善民生，健全覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系。在人口老龄化背景下，农村养老已经成为一个重大社会问题。.为准确预测农村人口死亡率，本项目提出建立非对称双指数跳跃复合泊松-PB模型。依据该模型，利用精算理论构建精算指标体系，包括建立动态生存年金系数以及基础养老金给付现值模型、基础养老金调整机制、个人账户月养老金动态计发系数、农村养老保险平均替代率、农村养老保险基金缺口等指标。个人缴费和地方政府补贴形成积累后，面临基金保值增值问题，本项目拟利用罚函数理论和Copula等理论知识研究基金动态投资策略。鉴于新农保制度实施不久，为保证制度可持续发展，拟研究新政策对参保农民老年生活的贡献率、农民参保率及中央财政的支出压力等问题，并通过压力测试将这些问题进行量化，据此将仿真结果反馈到指标体系，进一步优化精算指标体系，以期实现新型农村养老制度可持续发展。

Communique of the Fifth Plenum of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China called for ensuring and improving people's livelihoods by perfecting the social security system which covers urban and rural residents during the Twelfth Five-year Plan period. In the background of population aging, rural endowment has become a serious social problem..In order to accurately predict the rural population mortality, this project proposes an asymmetric double-index jump-diffusion compound poisson-PB model. Based on this model, we develop a set of index system by using the actuarial theory, including a dynamic life annuity coefficient, the actuarial present value of fundamental pension payment, fundamental pension adjustment mechanism, dynamic paying coefficient for monthly pension of individual account, average substitution rate of the rural pension and the rural pension fund gap etc. This project also plans to study the dynamic investment strategy of pension fund by applying the penalty function theory and Copula theory so that the pension fund can preserve an appreciate increasing value. Considering that the new rural pension system has been put into effect for a short time, and then to keep sustainable development for this new system, the project plans to research the substitution rate of this new pension system, the percentage of the covered peasants, the pressure on the payment of central budget and so on. It follows that these problems can be quantified via the pressure test and consequently, these simulation results would be feeded back into the indexes system, and finally optimize the actuarial index system. As a result, we expect that this new rural pension system will be sustainable development.