全球变暖1.5度(巴黎协定温度目标)情景下西北太平洋夏季风变化过程和机制

《巴黎协定》制定了本世纪末全球增暖幅度控制在1.5度的目标，预估该目标下西北太平洋夏季风的变异将有助于科学的应对东亚地区未来气候的变化。1.5度目标的实现需要使温室气体浓度到达峰值后下降，而目前温室气体下降期西北太平洋气候变化物理过程尚未被揭示。针对当前的需求和研究的不足，本项目拟通过资料诊断、理论分析和数值模拟，完善热带海温对西北太平洋夏季风影响机理；研究温室气体浓度上升和下降期西北太平洋夏季风环流和降水的变化及机制；研究温室气体浓度上升和下降期西北太平洋热带海温与西北太平洋夏季风关系的变化及其机制；在此基础上预估1.5度增暖下西北太平洋夏季风强度、位置、年际变率以及季节内预测因子的变化。项目成果不仅可以推动低碳排放情景下东亚区域气候变化理论研究，也为预估东亚气候变化提供科学基础，具有重要的科学和社会意义。

The Paris Agreement sets a temperature goal of pursuing efforts to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5k above pre-industrial levels. As the Northwest Pacific summer monsoon is a key climate system connecting the tropics to mid-latitudes East Asia, projecting the change of the summer monsoon under 1.5k global warming is important. To achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal, we need control the green house gases emission and let the concentration of green house gases decrease after it reach a peak. Thus, in order to project the change of the Northwest Pacific summer monsoon, we should not only understand how the monsoon changes during the period of increase green house gases concentration, but also understand that in the period of decrease concentration. However, the mechanism of the monsoon changes in period of decrease green house gases concentration is still unknown. In this project, first, we will investigate the mechanism of how the tropical SST impacts on the summer monsoon. Then, we will study the change of atmospheric circulation, precipitation of the summer monsoon and its relationship with tropical sea surface temperature during the periods of increase and decrease green house gases concentration. Last, we will project the change of the Northwest Pacific summer monsoon under 1.5k global warming. We think the prospective results of the project will advance the research of East Asian regional climate change.