热带印度洋海盆模对EAP/PJ遥相关型影响的机理研究

以往研究表明EAP/PJ遥相关型受西太平洋暖池热力状况影响，其年际和季节内变动能造成东亚夏季气候灾害。最近观测证据显示EAP/PJ遥相关型也受热带印度洋海盆模影响，但影响过程和机制尚不清楚。针对目前研究的不足，本项目拟通过资料分析、动力诊断和数值模拟等手段，在夏季平均和季节内尺度上研究热带印度洋海盆模对EAP/PJ遥相关型的影响,并研究热带印度洋海盆模冷暖状态对EAP/PJ遥相关型影响的非对称性。通过这些研究揭示热带印度洋海盆模对EAP/PJ遥相关型的影响过程和机制。项目的研究成果将有助于加深对东亚夏季气候年际和季节内变异机制的理解，且能够为我国短期气候预测提供新的依据，具有重要的科学和社会意义。

Previous studies have studied the impact of western Pacific warm pool on EAP(East Asia-Pacific)/PJ(Pacific-Japan) teleconnection. Recently, observation evidences reveal that the tropical Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) can lead to the EAP/PJ pattern anomalies. However, the underlying mechanisms of the impact of IOBM SSTA on EAP/PJ teleconnection are still unknown. In addition, the EAP/PJ teleconection have significant variability both on interannual and intraseasonal time scale. Thus, we will study the impact of IOBM SSTA on interannaul and intraseasonal variations of EAP/PJ teleconnection through observation analyses and numerical simulation in this project. Moreover, we will study the difference of the impact of IOBM on EAP/PJ during its warm and cool state. The future results of this project will provide some new observational evidence and theory for the dynamics of East Asia monsoon, and will provide some guidance for short-term climate prediction.