基于非对称合作博弈的梯级水电站施工导流风险传导机制与控制

在梯级水电站建设过程中，施工度汛所涉及的利益相关方是相互关联的，其导流风险具有转移与传导特性，风险控制直接影响工程建设的安全管理与目标实现。因此研究梯级建设条件下施工导流风险传导机制与控制方法对工程的安全、质量、工期管理具有重要意义。本项目针对梯级水电站建设利益相关方的效用特性及其表征、导流风险链式传导与网络传导机制、导流风险调控方法等问题，综合运用工程水文学、水力学、系统仿真技术、网络流和非对称合作博弈等理论与方法，分析利益相关方的效用函数及其特征，揭示梯级电站施工度汛过程中的导流风险传导特性，建立利益相关方非对称合作博弈的施工导流风险链式状态转移方程、网络状态转移方程及其演化特征，解析链式和网络结构条件下的施工导流风险在时间与空间属性上的传导演化过程及其量化模型，提出梯级水电站施工导流风险传导阻力衰减、网络结构优化及其控制方法，为水电站建设施工导流风险管理提供理论基础。

In the process of hydropower construction with cascade reservoirs, stakeholders are interrelated in construction during flood period. Diversion risk has conduction property and its control affects safety management and construction goals directly. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the conduction mechanism of diversion risk and its control method to guarantee construction safety, quality and schedule management. It includes utility characteristic analysis of stakeholders and calculation, line and network conduction mechanism of diversion risk and diversion risk control method. Based on engineering hydraulics and hydrology, system simulation technology, network flow and asymmetric cooperative game theory, utility function and characteristic of stakeholders are presented to analyze diversion risk conduction property during flood period with cascaded reservoirs. Then, line and network state transition equations and evolution characteristic analysis of diversion risk are established under asymmetric cooperation game. In the condition of line and network, it reveals evolution progress of diversion risk conduction in time and space. In the same time, quantitative model and evolution progress of diversion risk conduction are established. At last, risk conduction control methods, which increase conduction resistance and optimize network structure, are established. It provides a theoretical basis of risk management of construction diversion.